Calibration
How well do the probabilities match what actually happened?
Live WC predictions (n = 104)
Full backtest (Full backtest (2024, all competitions), n = 290): Brier 0.495, accuracy 63.8% — inflated by friendlies and qualifiers.
Reliability diagram — pooled outcomes
Each dot is a probability bin pooling home-win, draw, and away-win predictions. Dots on the dashed diagonal = perfect calibration. Dot size scales with sample count.
Per-outcome summary
| Outcome | Predicted (avg) | Observed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 45.1% | 43.3% | -1.8pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 28.8% | +3.5pp |
| Away win | 29.5% | 27.9% | -1.6pp |
Statistics are from live World Cup matches. The reliability diagram and table will fill in as results come in.
Known limitations: on Euro-like fields with clustered Elo ratings (the closest analog to World Cup group play) the model hits roughly 49% match accuracy and a Brier score of around 1.05 per outcome — only marginally better than random. Draws are systematically under-predicted by ~4 percentage points, with away wins over-predicted by a matching amount. These biases are corrected in the per-match probability displays; see the methodology for details.