Title odds — who wins the World Cup?
Each contender's chance of lifting the trophy, from three sources side by side: the statistical model, sportsbook outright odds (vig stripped), and Polymarket prices. Ranked by the model. Bars share one scale, so shorter bars mean a lower title probability.
| # | Team | Model | Sportsbook | Polymarket | Model − book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain |
28.5%
|
15.4%
|
15.8%
|
+13.1pp |
| 2 | Argentina |
20.2%
|
8.2%
|
8.4%
|
+12.0pp |
| 3 | France |
9.5%
|
14.6%
|
15.8%
|
-5.1pp |
| 4 | England |
5.7%
|
10.4%
|
10.4%
|
-4.6pp |
| 5 | Portugal |
4.6%
|
9.5%
|
10.0%
|
-4.9pp |
| 6 | Brazil |
3.9%
|
8.3%
|
8.3%
|
-4.5pp |
| 7 | Colombia |
3.6%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
+1.5pp |
| 8 | Morocco |
2.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.7%
|
+1.3pp |
| 9 | Japan |
2.7%
|
1.5%
|
1.7%
|
+1.2pp |
| 10 | Netherlands |
2.5%
|
4.3%
|
3.9%
|
-1.8pp |
| 11 | Germany |
2.5%
|
5.6%
|
5.2%
|
-3.1pp |
| 12 | Mexico |
2.4%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
+1.1pp |
| 13 | Ecuador |
1.8%
|
0.9%
|
0.8%
|
+0.9pp |
| 14 | Türkiye |
1.2%
|
0.9%
|
1.1%
|
+0.3pp |
| 15 | Uruguay |
1.0%
|
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
-0.1pp |
| 16 | Croatia |
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
0.9%
|
+0.1pp |
Model probabilities come from 10,000 Monte Carlo tournament simulations. Sportsbook figures are the vig-stripped consensus outright market; Polymarket figures are prediction-market prices. "Model − book" is the model's championship probability minus the sportsbook's, in percentage points. The top 16 contenders by the model are shown, as of 10 June 2026.