World Cup 2026 — the forecast

Each team's model-estimated chance of reaching every stage, from advancing out of the group to lifting the trophy. Greener means more likely to still be playing; the gold column is the title race itself. Ranked by championship odds.

What changed today

Title odds

France	↓	-2.0pp
Spain	↓	-1.3pp
Brazil	↑	+1.0pp
Mexico	↑	+0.8pp
Germany	↑	+0.6pp

Advance from group

New Zealand	↓	-8.6pp
Jordan	↓	-5.4pp
Uzbekistan	↓	-4.9pp
Algeria	↑	+4.6pp
Colombia	↑	+3.7pp

Fresh divergences

Mexico vs Czechia 20pp gap Market hedges more than the model
Canada vs Switzerland 17pp gap Model and market disagree on the favourite
Panama vs Croatia 17pp gap Market more confident than the model

#	Team	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
1	Spain H	99.9%	82.1%	63.3%	54.4%	40.4%	28.2%
2	Argentina J	96.7%	73.7%	60.9%	46.8%	33.2%	19.7%
3	France I	90.8%	72.5%	50.1%	33.7%	17.9%	10.2%
4	England L	90.2%	64.6%	39.6%	24.1%	12.1%	5.5%
5	Portugal K	85.6%	58.6%	34.3%	18.1%	10.3%	4.5%
6	Brazil C	97.0%	56.8%	35.6%	19.7%	8.8%	4.0%
7	Colombia K	80.4%	53.7%	28.5%	15.5%	7.9%	3.4%
8	Japan F	96.5%	50.2%	30.6%	15.8%	6.6%	2.8%
9	Morocco C	95.9%	52.6%	30.4%	16.0%	6.8%	2.8%
10	Germany E	97.9%	60.4%	29.0%	15.1%	6.2%	2.6%
11	Mexico A	98.8%	74.1%	37.0%	17.3%	6.7%	2.4%
12	Netherlands F	96.2%	49.8%	30.3%	14.8%	5.9%	2.4%
13	Ecuador E	96.5%	54.4%	25.3%	12.6%	4.7%	1.6%
14	Switzerland B	98.1%	60.8%	26.2%	9.3%	3.6%	1.2%
15	Türkiye D	81.3%	51.5%	25.5%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
16	Belgium G	93.6%	55.4%	25.8%	8.0%	2.8%	1.0%
17	Croatia L	71.2%	36.1%	14.2%	6.9%	2.8%	0.9%
18	Norway I	55.0%	32.2%	15.2%	7.4%	2.6%	0.9%
19	Uruguay H	95.0%	32.2%	15.9%	7.5%	2.9%	0.9%
20	Canada B	99.2%	59.4%	23.6%	7.5%	2.6%	0.9%
21	Australia D	78.2%	46.1%	21.5%	6.5%	2.5%	0.8%
22	Iran G	91.4%	51.3%	21.1%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%
23	South Korea A	87.6%	46.3%	18.1%	5.0%	1.1%	0.4%
24	Senegal I	45.3%	22.6%	9.1%	3.7%	1.2%	0.2%
25	USA D	78.5%	38.6%	14.4%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
26	Algeria J	45.9%	9.5%	4.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
27	Paraguay D	61.9%	27.2%	10.0%	2.2%	0.6%	0.2%
28	Côte d'Ivoire E	80.8%	25.4%	8.5%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%
29	Austria J	37.3%	7.4%	3.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
30	Czechia A	71.9%	29.6%	9.8%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
31	Uzbekistan K	23.4%	9.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
32	Panama L	34.5%	12.8%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%	0.1%
33	Scotland C	63.0%	18.6%	5.8%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%
34	Sweden F	63.8%	12.2%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%	—
35	Egypt G	76.1%	28.7%	7.8%	1.5%	0.3%	—
36	Bosnia and Herzegovina B	70.0%	13.3%	2.6%	0.2%	—	—
37	Cabo Verde H	51.7%	7.5%	1.2%	0.1%	—	—
38	Curaçao E	24.8%	2.6%	0.3%	—	—	—
39	DR Congo K	10.6%	3.1%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—
40	Ghana L	4.1%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
41	Haiti C	44.1%	9.7%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%	—
42	Iraq I	8.8%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—
43	Jordan J	20.1%	3.0%	0.9%	0.3%	—	—
44	New Zealand G	38.9%	9.7%	1.6%	0.2%	—	—
45	Qatar B	32.7%	4.5%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—
46	Saudi Arabia H	53.3%	9.0%	1.6%	0.3%	—	—
47	South Africa A	41.7%	10.7%	2.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—
48	Tunisia F	43.5%	7.2%	1.7%	0.3%	—	—