World Cup 2026 — the forecast
This board is now an archive.
The 2026 World Cup ended on 19 July 2026: Spain 1–0 Argentina, after extra time. Every per-match forecast on these pages was frozen before its kickoff, and none has been revised since.
The final ledger, across 104 matches: favourite hit rate — model 61%, sportsbook 63%, Polymarket 63%; attribution — model 26 distinct verdicts, Polymarket 5, sportsbook 0; calibration (Brier, lower is better) — Polymarket 0.498, sportsbook 0.498, model 0.525.
Forecasts are graded at 90 minutes throughout, so a match settled in extra time or on penalties — the final included — scores as a draw.
The statistical model forecast. The markets priced. The language model narrated. What each source said, and when, is exactly what these pages show.
Frozen on 19 July 2026.
Model forecasts, sportsbook odds, and Polymarket prices for every match, updated after each result. What just happened, what's on today, and how the whole tournament is shaping up.
Champions
Who's been closer
After 104 matches: model 26 · books 0 · Polymarket 5 · markets agreed 6 · sources agreed 32 · all missed 35
Aggregate calibration (Brier, lower is better): Polymarket 0.498 · Sportsbook 0.498 · Model 0.525
Per match, the source whose frozen pre-match probability on the actual result was highest. "Markets agreed" when the two markets jointly beat the model (neither credited individually); "sources agreed" when every source picked the result and the top two were within 2pp; "all missed" when every source's favourite lost. See each played match's page for the verdict.
Survival & title odds
Each team's model-estimated chance of reaching every stage. Greener means more likely to still be playing; the gold column is the title race itself. Ranked by championship odds.
| # | Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain H | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Eliminated (47)
| # | Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out in the final | |||||||
| 1 | Argentina J | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — |
| Out in the semi-finals | |||||||
| 1 | England L | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — |
| 2 | France I | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — |
| Out in the quarter-finals | |||||||
| 1 | Belgium G | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Morocco C | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Norway I | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Switzerland B | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| Out in the Round of 16 | |||||||
| 1 | Brazil C | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Canada B | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Colombia K | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Egypt G | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Mexico A | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Paraguay D | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | Portugal K | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | USA D | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Out in the Round of 32 | |||||||
| 1 | Algeria J | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Australia D | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Austria J | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Bosnia and Herzegovina B | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Cabo Verde H | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Croatia L | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | Côte d'Ivoire E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | DR Congo K | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ecuador E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | Germany E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ghana L | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | Japan F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | Netherlands F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | Senegal I | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | South Africa A | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sweden F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Out in the group stage | |||||||
| 1 | Curaçao E | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Czechia A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Haiti C | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Iran G | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Iraq I | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Jordan J | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | New Zealand G | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | Panama L | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | Qatar B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | Saudi Arabia H | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | Scotland C | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | South Korea A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | Tunisia F | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | Türkiye D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | Uruguay H | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | Uzbekistan K | — | — | — | — | — | — |