Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina

Preview

The model favors Canada with an 80% win probability, a commanding margin over Bosnia and Herzegovina's 2% chance. The underdog is assigned minimal probability of a decisive victory under the Dixon-Coles framework applied to the teams' Elo ratings.

The model's spread suggests a heavily skewed match. A Canada win is the dominant outcome, while a draw registers as the only meaningful alternative scenario at 18%. Bosnia and Herzegovina's 2% win probability reflects an extreme asymmetry in the forecast—the model treats a Bosnia upset as nearly impossible rather than merely unlikely.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge substantially. The books assign Canada just 53%, roughly 27 percentage points lower than the model, and credit Bosnia and Herzegovina with 21%—nearly ten times the model's estimate. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with sportsbook odds. The dashboard presents both forecasts; whether the model's sharper lean toward Canada or the market's tighter odds better reflect true match probabilities remains an open question.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.