Group C · 13 June 2026 · neutral venue

Brazil v Morocco

Three views of the match

Brazil
Draw
Morocco

Modelbias-corrected

38%

32%

30%

Sportsbook43 books, vig stripped

58%

25%

18%

Polymarket

58%

24%

17%

Market more confident than the model

The market puts Brazil 19 pp higher than the model — 58% vs 38%.

The sportsbooks price Brazil to win at 58%, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the model's 38%. Both sources agree Brazil is favored, but the market has substantially sharpened that conviction while also compressing the draw probability down to 25% from the model's 32%. The gap on Morocco is similarly wide: the model sees a 30% win probability versus the market's 17%. Recent form, lineup changes, or injury status could all explain why real-money flows are backing Brazil more decisively than the statistical model suggests; the model has no access to such information. The divergence signals a meaningful disagreement worth tracking, though it reflects different information sets rather than offering a judgment on which view is correct.

Preview

The model rates Brazil as favorite at 38%, with Morocco and a draw occupying nearly equal ground at 30% and 32% respectively. The sportsbook consensus is substantially more bullish on Brazil, assigning the favourite a 58% win probability and reducing Morocco's chances to 18%.

The model's forecast suggests a genuinely competitive encounter. The 8-percentage-point margin between Brazil and draw probability indicates neither a comfortable win nor a stalemate is heavily favoured. Morocco's 30% win chance reflects a plausible path to victory. This distribution implies an open match where all three outcomes remain live possibilities throughout.

A notable divergence emerges between the model and the market. The sportsbooks and Polymarket both price Brazil roughly 20 percentage points higher than the model does, while compressing Morocco's odds to about half the model's assessment. The dashboard offers no resolution as to which source better reflects the true likelihood; users should weigh the model's statistical foundation against market sentiment independently.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.