Group C · 13 June 2026 · neutral venue

Haiti v Scotland

Three views of the match

Haiti
Draw
Scotland

Modelbias-corrected

24%

30%

45%

Sportsbook43 books, vig stripped

15%

22%

63%

Polymarket

15%

22%

64%

Market more confident than the model

The market puts Scotland 18 pp higher than the model — 63% vs 45%.

The starkest gap lies on the Scotland win: the market prices it at 63%, while the model shows 45%, a 18-percentage-point spread. Both sources agree Scotland is the favorite, but the sportsbooks and crypto markets are substantially more confident in that outcome. This widened conviction could reflect recent lineup changes, injury status among key players, or recent form trends that the model's Elo framework has not yet absorbed. The draw probability also sits notably lower in the market (22% versus 30%), suggesting bookmakers see a clearer result than the statistical baseline anticipates. The dashboard flags this as a signal worth monitoring: either the market has visibility on information unavailable to the model, or the model's rating differential is more predictive than real-money prices currently assume.

Preview

The model rates Scotland as the favored side at 45% to win, with Haiti holding a 24% win probability. That 21-percentage-point gap reflects Scotland's stronger underlying strength, though the forecast treats this as a competitive match rather than a mismatch.

The draw probability of 30% is the most likely single outcome, suggesting the teams are sufficiently close in quality that a stalemate carries real weight. Scotland's 45% win chance and Haiti's 24% are separated enough to define a clear direction, but neither side is forecast to overwhelm the other. The match is expected to be contested.

The sportsbook consensus diverges notably from the model. Books price Scotland at 63%, nearly 18 percentage points above the model's 45%, while Haiti drops to 15% and the draw to 22%. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with the books. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these estimates, but the gap is large enough to flag as material disagreement on Scotland's strength relative to Haiti.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.