Group C · 13 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Haiti 0–1 Scotland

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Haiti
Draw
Scotland

Modelbias-corrected

24%

30%

45%

Sportsbookvig stripped

16%

23%

61%

Polymarket

16%

23%

62%

Model gave this result 45%, books 61%, Polymarket 62% — sources agreed.

Market more confident than the model · written pre-match

The market puts Scotland 16 pp higher than the model — 61% vs 45%.

The model assigns Scotland a 45% win probability while the sportsbook consensus reaches 61%, a 16-percentage-point gap favoring Scotland at the market. This sharpening of confidence in Scotland's favour could reflect real-money flows incorporating recent form, injury news, or lineup changes that the model's last update did not capture. Haiti's win probability widens most under the model (25% vs 16%), suggesting the statistical baseline is less decisive than current information available to traders. Both sources agree Scotland is favored, but the market's sharper conviction signals either emerging confidence in Scotland's readiness or erosion of Haiti's prospects since the model was trained—details the dashboard cannot verify.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Scotland as the clear favorite at 45% to win, with Haiti at 24% and a draw at 30%. Scotland holds a 20-percentage-point edge over Haiti in outright victory probability, establishing them as the likely victors on a neutral surface.

The draw emerges as a competitive outcome in this matchup, sitting between the two outright results and representing roughly three in ten possible conclusions. The 20-point gap between the favorite and underdog indicates meaningful separation but leaves Haiti with a realistic path to upset or at minimum secure a share of the points. No single outcome dominates heavily; the match appears poised as a moderately open contest rather than one tilted sharply in either direction.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices both diverge notably from the model, favoring Scotland substantially more. Books price Scotland at 62%, roughly 17 percentage points higher than the model's 45%. The market simultaneously compresses both Haiti and draw probabilities downward, suggesting materially greater confidence in a Scottish victory than the statistical forecast supports. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; material disagreement warrants caution in either direction.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.