Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador

Preview

The model favors Ecuador, assigning them a 55% win probability against Ivory Coast's 17%. The sportsbook consensus is substantially more bullish on Ivory Coast, rating them at 27%, a gap of 10 percentage points. Polymarket prices align closely with the book average, suggesting Ecuador remain favorites in the betting market but with considerably less conviction than the statistical model indicates.

The model's spread suggests a competitive match with meaningful upside for a draw at 28%. Ecuador's edge in the model is decisive—a gap of 37 percentage points over Ivory Coast—yet the draw probability indicates the match could settle level without either side performing to expected form. The sportsbook probabilities are more compressed; all three outcomes sit between 27% and 40%, reflecting higher perceived uncertainty and a tighter contest.

Model and market diverge notably on Ivory Coast's chances. The books and Polymarket both price them roughly 10 percentage points higher than the model does. The model also rates the draw less likely than either market source. This suggests the betting consensus sees greater parity than the statistical forecast captures. The dashboard makes no claim about which assessment is correct, only that material disagreement exists on this match's likely outcome.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.