Côte d'Ivoire 1–0 Ecuador

Pre-match preview

The model favors Ecuador with a 55% win probability, marking a substantial edge over Ivory Coast at 17%. The statistical forecast sees this as a clear asymmetry, with Ecuador the stronger side by a considerable margin.

A draw at 28% sits between the two outright outcomes in the model's view, suggesting meaningful competitive balance despite Ecuador's overall superiority. The gap between Ecuador's win probability and Ivory Coast's is wide enough that the model rates the African side as a clear underdog, though the draw possibility keeps the match from appearing entirely one-sided in outcome distribution.

The model and sportsbooks diverge notably here. The market prices Ecuador's win at 37% — roughly 18 percentage points lower than the model — and substantially elevates Ivory Coast to 29%. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbook consensus. The dashboard presents this divergence without claiming superiority for either source; material disagreement on the match's competitive tightness warrants scrutiny of the underlying assumptions driving each forecast.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.