Sweden v Tunisia

Preview

The statistical model favors Sweden at 41%, giving them a narrow edge over Tunisia's 27.7% win probability. Sweden enter as the slight favorite, but the gap is modest enough that an upset remains credible at better than one-in-four odds.

The 31.3% draw probability suggests a competitive, closely matched contest. The outcome distribution is fairly flat across all three results, indicating genuine uncertainty. Neither team is projected to dominate; a stalemate is nearly as likely as a Swedish victory, and Tunisia retain a plausible path to three points.

The market consensus diverges from the model, crediting Sweden with 49.4% and assigning Tunisia only 22.5%. Polymarket prices reinforce that tilt, reaching 50.2% for Sweden. The gap widens to roughly 8 percentage points on the favorite and 5 points on the underdog. The model sees a tighter contest; the market leans more decisively toward Sweden. The dashboard makes no claim about which view is correct.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.