Group G · 15 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Iran 2–2 New Zealand

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Iran
Draw
New Zealand

Modelbias-corrected

65%

25%

10%

Sportsbookvig stripped

52%

28%

20%

Polymarket

53%

28%

20%

Model gave this result 25%, books 28%, Polymarket 28% — all sources missed.

Market hedges more than the model · written pre-match

The model puts Iran 13 pp higher than the market — 65% vs 52%.

The model assigns Iran a 65% win probability while the sportsbook consensus settles at 50%, a 15-percentage-point gap favoring the model's confidence in an Iran victory. This divergence suggests the market may be pricing in information the model cannot access—recent lineup changes, injury updates, or current form shifts that have emerged since the model's last training cycle. Conversely, the model's Elo-based foundation could be overweighting historical strength if Iran's recent performance has deteriorated. The dashboard surfaces this gap as a signal worth monitoring; neither the statistical forecast nor the market consensus is a verdict on the actual outcome.

Pre-match preview

The statistical model favors Iran decisively, assigning a 65% win probability against New Zealand's 10%. This 55-percentage-point gap reflects a substantial gap in expected performance on a neutral ground. New Zealand enters as a clear underdog under the model's lens.

The model's spread suggests a moderately competitive match with meaningful draw risk. A draw carries 25% probability, indicating that even outcomes are plausible but less likely than an Iran victory. The gap between Iran's win chance and New Zealand's reflects genuine asymmetry in the forecast rather than an overwhelming favorite.

A meaningful divergence separates the model from sportsbook consensus. Books and Polymarket both converge near 50% for Iran, roughly 15 percentage points lower than the model, while pricing New Zealand roughly double the model's assessment. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the disparity warrants attention from users comparing statistical and market views.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.