Iran v New Zealand

Preview

The model favors Iran at 65%, giving New Zealand only a 10% chance of victory. This represents a decisive lean toward the higher-seeded team, with the underdog facing a steep probability hill despite the neutral venue.

The expected match shape reflects moderate-to-strong separation between the sides. Iran's draw probability of 25% suggests competitive balance exists but that outright Iranian superiority is the modal outcome. New Zealand's 10% win probability indicates a scenario where the favorites falter significantly, not a genuinely even contest.

Model and market diverge meaningfully here. The model backs Iran by 14 percentage points; sportsbooks and Polymarket cluster around 50% for Iran, closer to parity. The gap widens on New Zealand—the model gives 10%, while books and crypto markets align near 21%. This suggests the market prices substantially more uncertainty or New Zealand strength than the statistical model does. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these views.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.