Spain 0–0 Cabo Verde

Pre-match preview

The model favors Spain at 91%, with Cape Verde's win probability effectively zero. This reflects a heavily lopsided matchup in which the underdog has minimal realistic chance of victory, though an 9% draw probability leaves some room for a stalemate result.

The win–loss spread is stark: Spain's dominance translates to a match expected to be one-sided rather than competitive. A draw remains the only plausible non-Spain outcome under the model, accounting for roughly one in eleven scenarios. Cape Verde's path to three points sits outside the model's meaningful probability range.

The model and sportsbook consensus are closely aligned on a Spain victory, differing by just 2 percentage points. The market assigns Cape Verde a 3.2% win probability—above the model's floor—and a slightly lower draw rate. Polymarket pricing sits nearly identical to the model itself on the favorite, though it edges down the draw to 6.4%. All three sources converge on Spain as a heavy favorite; divergences among them are marginal.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.