Spain v Cabo Verde

Preview

The model favors Spain at 91%, leaving Cape Verde with a negligible win probability of 0%. The sportsbook consensus aligns closely with the model's Spain assessment at 88%, though it allocates 4% to a Cape Verde victory where the model sees essentially none.

The expected outcome centers heavily on a Spain victory, but the draw emerges as a material possibility at 9% under the model. This suggests the match, while heavily tilted toward one side, carries enough uncertainty to produce a 1-1 or 0-0 outcome at plausible frequency. The gap between Spain's dominant probability and the draw's single-digit share indicates a competitive asymmetry rather than a formality.

Model and sportsbook probabilities for a Spain win differ by 3 percentage points, well within typical alignment margins. The key divergence lies in the tail: books assign 4% to Cape Verde, while the model rounds to zero. Polymarket pricing sits between these two, offering a marginally tighter Spain figure at 90%. The dashboard does not adjudicate which treatment of low-probability outcomes is correct.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.