World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group J · 16 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Argentina 3–0 Algeria

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Argentina
  • Draw
  • Algeria
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 74%, books 69%, Polymarket 70% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Argentina 2.23 − Algeria 0.60 (Argentina +1.63)

Argentina 0 – Algeria 0: 6% 6 Argentina 0 – Algeria 1: 3% 3 Argentina 0 – Algeria 2: 1% Argentina 0 – Algeria 3: 0% Argentina 0 – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 0 – Algeria 5+: 0% Argentina 1 – Algeria 0: 13% 13 Argentina 1 – Algeria 1: 8% 8 Argentina 1 – Algeria 2: 2% Argentina 1 – Algeria 3: 0% Argentina 1 – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 1 – Algeria 5+: 0% Argentina 2 – Algeria 0: 15% 15 Argentina 2 – Algeria 1: 9% 9 Argentina 2 – Algeria 2: 3% Argentina 2 – Algeria 3: 1% Argentina 2 – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 2 – Algeria 5+: 0% Argentina 3 – Algeria 0: 11% 11 Argentina 3 – Algeria 1: 7% 7 Argentina 3 – Algeria 2: 2% Argentina 3 – Algeria 3: 0% Argentina 3 – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 3 – Algeria 5+: 0% Argentina 4 – Algeria 0: 6% 6 Argentina 4 – Algeria 1: 4% 4 Argentina 4 – Algeria 2: 1% Argentina 4 – Algeria 3: 0% Argentina 4 – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 4 – Algeria 5+: 0% Argentina 5+ – Algeria 0: 4% 4 Argentina 5+ – Algeria 1: 3% Argentina 5+ – Algeria 2: 1% Argentina 5+ – Algeria 3: 0% Argentina 5+ – Algeria 4: 0% Argentina 5+ – Algeria 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Algeria goals → Argentina goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Argentina at 74%, giving the team a commanding edge in a matchup played on neutral ground. Algeria's modeled win probability stands at just 5%, roughly one-seventh of Argentina's chances.

The W/D/L spread reveals a heavily skewed contest. Argentina's three-to-one advantage over a draw outcome suggests the model sees a competitive gap but does not rule out a stalemate; draws are plausible in roughly one in five scenarios. Algeria's low win probability indicates the model expects asymmetric pressure, though the team retains a non-negligible tail of outcomes.

The model and sportsbooks diverge notably on Algeria's chances. The market consensus puts the underdog at 11–12%, roughly double the model's 5% assessment. Both sources agree closely on Argentina's win probability (74% model, 67% books) and draw likelihood (21%). The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better captures Algeria's true strength; the discrepancy may reflect market overweighting of uncertainty or the model's confidence in the gap.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.