World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group J · 16 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Austria 3–1 Jordan

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Austria
  • Draw
  • Jordan
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 45%, books 71%, Polymarket 73% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Austria 1.44 − Jordan 1.07 (Austria +0.37)

Austria 0 – Jordan 0: 8% 8 Austria 0 – Jordan 1: 8% 8 Austria 0 – Jordan 2: 5% 5 Austria 0 – Jordan 3: 2% Austria 0 – Jordan 4: 0% Austria 0 – Jordan 5+: 0% Austria 1 – Jordan 0: 11% 11 Austria 1 – Jordan 1: 13% 13 Austria 1 – Jordan 2: 7% 7 Austria 1 – Jordan 3: 2% Austria 1 – Jordan 4: 1% Austria 1 – Jordan 5+: 0% Austria 2 – Jordan 0: 8% 8 Austria 2 – Jordan 1: 9% 9 Austria 2 – Jordan 2: 5% 5 Austria 2 – Jordan 3: 2% Austria 2 – Jordan 4: 0% Austria 2 – Jordan 5+: 0% Austria 3 – Jordan 0: 4% 4 Austria 3 – Jordan 1: 4% 4 Austria 3 – Jordan 2: 2% Austria 3 – Jordan 3: 1% Austria 3 – Jordan 4: 0% Austria 3 – Jordan 5+: 0% Austria 4 – Jordan 0: 1% Austria 4 – Jordan 1: 2% Austria 4 – Jordan 2: 1% Austria 4 – Jordan 3: 0% Austria 4 – Jordan 4: 0% Austria 4 – Jordan 5+: 0% Austria 5+ – Jordan 0: 1% Austria 5+ – Jordan 1: 1% Austria 5+ – Jordan 2: 0% Austria 5+ – Jordan 3: 0% Austria 5+ – Jordan 4: 0% Austria 5+ – Jordan 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Jordan goals → Austria goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Austria to win at 44.5%, giving Jordan a 24.6% chance of victory. This is a competitive match in the model's view, with neither side dominant. Austria enters as the statistical favorite, but the gap to the underdog is modest rather than commanding.

The draw emerges as a plausible outcome at 30.9%, the second-most likely result. The spread across the three outcomes is relatively even—no single scenario overwhelms the others. This suggests a closely matched encounter where the outcome remains genuinely uncertain through regular time.

The market is notably more bullish on Austria, pricing a win at 70%, roughly 25 percentage points above the model. Polymarket contracts align closely with sportsbook consensus. The divergence is substantial: the market compresses Jordan's chances to 10–11% while raising the draw to the 17–18% range. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is more accurate, only that both sources regard Austria as favored but via materially different degree of conviction.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.