France 3–1 Senegal
Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff
- France
- Draw
- Senegal
Model gave this result 65%, books 65%, Polymarket 66% — sources agreed.
Most likely scorelines
Model expected goals: France 1.94 − Senegal 0.74 (France +1.20)
- 1–013.0%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.1%
Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.
Pre-match preview
The model favors France at 65%, with Senegal assigned a 10% chance of victory. This represents a substantial gap in win probability, though not an elimination-round disparity. Senegal's underdog status reflects a meaningful but surmountable deficit in the forecast.
The W/D/L spread shows France as the clear lean, yet the draw sits at 25%—a material outcome that signals competitive balance in underlying match dynamics. A one-goal margin or a deadlock through 90 minutes carries real probability mass, indicating this is not a heavily lopsided contest despite France's favorites' label.
Model and market are closely aligned across all three outcomes, differing by 4 percentage points or fewer on each line. The sportsbook consensus sits marginally lower on France (64%) and higher on Senegal (14%) relative to the model, but these gaps fall within typical variance. Polymarket is similarly tight with the statistical forecast. No meaningful divergence exists between sources.
Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.