World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group I · 16 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Iraq 1–4 Norway

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Iraq
  • Draw
  • Norway
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 65%, books 80%, Polymarket 82% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Iraq 0.70 − Norway 2.02 (Norway +1.33)

Iraq 0 – Norway 0: 7% 7 Iraq 0 – Norway 1: 13% 13 Iraq 0 – Norway 2: 13% 13 Iraq 0 – Norway 3: 9% 9 Iraq 0 – Norway 4: 5% 5 Iraq 0 – Norway 5+: 3% Iraq 1 – Norway 0: 4% 4 Iraq 1 – Norway 1: 10% 10 Iraq 1 – Norway 2: 9% 9 Iraq 1 – Norway 3: 6% 6 Iraq 1 – Norway 4: 3% 3 Iraq 1 – Norway 5+: 2% Iraq 2 – Norway 0: 2% Iraq 2 – Norway 1: 3% 3 Iraq 2 – Norway 2: 3% 3 Iraq 2 – Norway 3: 2% Iraq 2 – Norway 4: 1% Iraq 2 – Norway 5+: 1% Iraq 3 – Norway 0: 0% Iraq 3 – Norway 1: 1% Iraq 3 – Norway 2: 1% Iraq 3 – Norway 3: 1% Iraq 3 – Norway 4: 0% Iraq 3 – Norway 5+: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 0: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 1: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 2: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 3: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 4: 0% Iraq 4 – Norway 5+: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 0: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 1: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 2: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 3: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 4: 0% Iraq 5+ – Norway 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Norway goals → Iraq goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Norway at 65%, with Iraq's win probability standing at 11%. The underdog faces a steep climb, though a draw outcome at 24% implies the match retains competitive structure beyond a simple two-way contest.

The spread across outcomes reflects moderate separation rather than a blowout expectation. Norway holds a commanding edge, yet the draw carries material weight—nearly a quarter of the probability mass. This suggests a match where Iraq can contest without being eliminated from contention early, even if Norway enters as heavy favorite.

The sportsbook consensus diverges notably from the model. Books price Norway at 79%, a 14-percentage-point gap above the model's 65%. Sportsbooks also trim both Iraq and draw probabilities below the model's estimates. Polymarket prices align closely with the book consensus, suggesting institutional conviction that Norway's advantage exceeds the statistical forecast. The dashboard makes no claim as to which source better reflects true match probability.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.