Iraq v Norway

Preview

The model favors Norway at 63%, with Iraq given an 12% chance of victory. The draw probability stands at 25%, suggesting a meaningful likelihood of a stalemate outcome. The gap between the top two scenarios reflects a pronounced but not overwhelming favorite.

The spread across win-draw-loss widens when comparing the favorites to the underdog, but the draw sits closer to Iraq's win probability than to a dominant Norway victory. This indicates a moderately competitive match rather than a heavily lopsided contest, though Norway enters as clear preference. The 25-point margin between Norway and Iraq win rates signals genuine uncertainty about the outcome beyond the favorite.

Market consensus tilts markedly toward Norway, placing the win probability at 79% compared to the model's 63%—a gap of 16 percentage points. Both sportsbooks and Polymarket are substantially tighter on Iraq and draw odds as well. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the divergence may reflect information or risk appetite unavailable to the model, or model and market may simply weight the same inputs differently.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.