World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group L · 17 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

England 4–2 Croatia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • England
  • Draw
  • Croatia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 53%, books 56%, Polymarket 56% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: England 1.63 − Croatia 0.93 (England +0.70)

England 0 – Croatia 0: 8% 8 England 0 – Croatia 1: 7% 7 England 0 – Croatia 2: 3% 3 England 0 – Croatia 3: 1% England 0 – Croatia 4: 0% England 0 – Croatia 5+: 0% England 1 – Croatia 0: 12% 12 England 1 – Croatia 1: 12% 12 England 1 – Croatia 2: 5% 5 England 1 – Croatia 3: 2% England 1 – Croatia 4: 0% England 1 – Croatia 5+: 0% England 2 – Croatia 0: 10% 10 England 2 – Croatia 1: 10% 10 England 2 – Croatia 2: 4% 4 England 2 – Croatia 3: 1% England 2 – Croatia 4: 0% England 2 – Croatia 5+: 0% England 3 – Croatia 0: 6% 6 England 3 – Croatia 1: 5% 5 England 3 – Croatia 2: 2% England 3 – Croatia 3: 1% England 3 – Croatia 4: 0% England 3 – Croatia 5+: 0% England 4 – Croatia 0: 2% England 4 – Croatia 1: 2% England 4 – Croatia 2: 1% England 4 – Croatia 3: 0% England 4 – Croatia 4: 0% England 4 – Croatia 5+: 0% England 5+ – Croatia 0: 1% England 5+ – Croatia 1: 1% England 5+ – Croatia 2: 0% England 5+ – Croatia 3: 0% England 5+ – Croatia 4: 0% England 5+ – Croatia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Croatia goals → England goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors England with a win probability of 53%, compared to Croatia's 18% chance. The gap reflects a meaningful but not decisive advantage; Croatia enters as a genuine underdog rather than a nominal contestant.

The draw carries a 29% probability in the model's output, suggesting a moderately competitive match where a stalemate remains plausible. The win probabilities are separated by roughly 35 percentage points, indicating England is the clearer favorite, yet the draw's substantial share implies the teams may be closer in execution than the headline win gap alone suggests.

The sportsbook consensus sits slightly higher on England at 55%, a gap of about 2 percentage points above the model. The draw narrows to 26% in market pricing. Polymarket reflects similar leanings. All three sources align within a narrow band, indicating broad agreement that England holds a modest edge while both Croatia's upset potential and a stalemate outcome warrant non-trivial odds.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.