World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group L · 17 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Ghana 1–0 Panama

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Ghana
  • Draw
  • Panama
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 11%, books 44%, Polymarket 44% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Ghana 0.69 − Panama 2.04 (Panama +1.35)

Ghana 0 – Panama 0: 7% 7 Ghana 0 – Panama 1: 13% 13 Ghana 0 – Panama 2: 14% 14 Ghana 0 – Panama 3: 9% 9 Ghana 0 – Panama 4: 5% 5 Ghana 0 – Panama 5+: 3% Ghana 1 – Panama 0: 4% 4 Ghana 1 – Panama 1: 9% 9 Ghana 1 – Panama 2: 9% 9 Ghana 1 – Panama 3: 6% 6 Ghana 1 – Panama 4: 3% 3 Ghana 1 – Panama 5+: 2% Ghana 2 – Panama 0: 2% Ghana 2 – Panama 1: 3% 3 Ghana 2 – Panama 2: 3% 3 Ghana 2 – Panama 3: 2% Ghana 2 – Panama 4: 1% Ghana 2 – Panama 5+: 1% Ghana 3 – Panama 0: 0% Ghana 3 – Panama 1: 1% Ghana 3 – Panama 2: 1% Ghana 3 – Panama 3: 1% Ghana 3 – Panama 4: 0% Ghana 3 – Panama 5+: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 0: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 1: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 2: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 3: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 4: 0% Ghana 4 – Panama 5+: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 0: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 1: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 2: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 3: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 4: 0% Ghana 5+ – Panama 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Panama goals → Ghana goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Panama with a 66% win probability, compared to Ghana's 11% chance of victory. This represents a substantial gap, positioning Panama as the clear favorite on the statistical forecast while assigning Ghana a narrow path to three points.

The draw carries meaningful probability at 24%, suggesting the match could be competitive despite the gap in win percentages. The W/D/L spread indicates a moderately wide separation between the frontrunner and challenger, though the plausibility of a stalemate leaves room for a tighter contest than the win probabilities alone might imply.

A sharp divergence exists between the model and the sportsbook consensus. The books price Ghana's win at 41%, roughly 30 percentage points higher than the model, and Panama's win at 29%, a gap of 37 percentage points in the opposite direction. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbook consensus. The dashboard makes no claim about which assessment is correct; the discrepancy reflects genuine disagreement between the two sources about the relative strength of these opponents.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.