World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group K · 17 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Portugal 1–1 DR Congo

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Portugal
  • Draw
  • DR Congo
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 20%, books 17%, Polymarket 16% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Portugal 2.35 − DR Congo 0.56 (Portugal +1.79)

Portugal 0 – DR Congo 0: 6% 6 Portugal 0 – DR Congo 1: 3% Portugal 0 – DR Congo 2: 1% Portugal 0 – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 0 – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 0 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Portugal 1 – DR Congo 0: 13% 13 Portugal 1 – DR Congo 1: 7% 7 Portugal 1 – DR Congo 2: 2% Portugal 1 – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 1 – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 1 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Portugal 2 – DR Congo 0: 15% 15 Portugal 2 – DR Congo 1: 8% 8 Portugal 2 – DR Congo 2: 2% Portugal 2 – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 2 – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 2 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Portugal 3 – DR Congo 0: 12% 12 Portugal 3 – DR Congo 1: 7% 7 Portugal 3 – DR Congo 2: 2% Portugal 3 – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 3 – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 3 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Portugal 4 – DR Congo 0: 7% 7 Portugal 4 – DR Congo 1: 4% 4 Portugal 4 – DR Congo 2: 1% Portugal 4 – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 4 – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 4 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 0: 5% 5 Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 1: 3% Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 2: 1% Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 3: 0% Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 4: 0% Portugal 5+ – DR Congo 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ DR Congo goals → Portugal goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Portugal at 77%, leaving DR Congo with a 4% chance of victory. This represents a decisive gap, positioning Portugal as a clear favorite while the underdog retains only remote odds of an upset.

The outcome distribution reflects a heavily skewed match. Portugal's win probability dominates the space; the draw sits at 20%, indicating that a stalemate is plausible but secondary. DR Congo's 4% win chance means the model anticipates an asymmetric contest unlikely to produce a competitive scoreline.

The model and sportsbook consensus are broadly aligned. Portugal's win probability differs by 3 percentage points between the two sources, and the draw sits within 2pp. The sportsbook assigns DR Congo 9% versus the model's 4%—a notable divergence that suggests the market prices slightly higher upset potential. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these views; both reflect genuine uncertainty at the tails.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.