World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group K · 17 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Uzbekistan
  • Draw
  • Colombia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 61%, books 69%, Polymarket 71% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Uzbekistan 0.76 − Colombia 1.91 (Colombia +1.15)

Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 0: 7% 7 Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 1: 13% 13 Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 2: 13% 13 Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 3: 8% 8 Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 4: 4% 4 Uzbekistan 0 – Colombia 5+: 2% Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 0: 5% 5 Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 1: 10% 10 Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 2: 10% 10 Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 3: 6% 6 Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 4: 3% Uzbekistan 1 – Colombia 5+: 2% Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 0: 2% Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 1: 4% 4 Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 2: 4% 4 Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 3: 2% Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 4: 1% Uzbekistan 2 – Colombia 5+: 1% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 0: 1% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 1: 1% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 2: 1% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 3: 1% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 4: 0% Uzbekistan 3 – Colombia 5+: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 0: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 1: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 2: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 3: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 4: 0% Uzbekistan 4 – Colombia 5+: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 0: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 1: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 2: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 3: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 4: 0% Uzbekistan 5+ – Colombia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Colombia goals → Uzbekistan goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

Colombia enters as the clear favorite, with the model projecting a 61% win probability compared to Uzbekistan's 13%. The 48-percentage-point gap reflects a substantial disparity in expected performance on a neutral surface. Uzbekistan's path to victory remains plausible but unlikely under the model's assessment.

The draw emerges as a meaningful outcome at 26%, suggesting the match carries more competitive texture than a one-sided scoreline might imply. The win probabilities are spaced such that Colombia is favored decisively, yet the relatively high draw probability indicates neither team is projected as dominant enough to render stalemate improbable. The underdog retains a non-trivial baseline chance.

The sportsbook consensus diverges from the model in Colombia's favor. Books price Colombia at 70%, nearly 9 percentage points above the model's 61%. Uzbekistan and draw probabilities compress correspondingly in the market. Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the gap warrants noting as a substantive disagreement on Colombia's true win probability.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.