Uzbekistan v Colombia

Preview

The model favors Colombia to win with a 62% probability, substantially ahead of Uzbekistan's 13% chance. This 49-percentage-point gap reflects a clear hierarchical split in the forecast, with Colombia positioned as the strong favorite on a neutral pitch.

The draw probability of 26% creates meaningful competitive space in the W/D/L distribution. While Colombia's win probability dominates, the relatively high draw chance suggests the match is not modeled as a runaway; Uzbekistan's non-trivial upset window and the plausible stalemate outcome indicate moderate tactical tightness is expected rather than one-sided control.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices both lean more heavily toward Colombia than the model does, with the consensus assigning Colombia 68% and Polymarket 69%, compared to the model's 61%. The gap between model and market on a Colombia win is roughly 6–7 percentage points. The model's draw estimate sits 4–6 points above both betting sources. These are modest divergences; the three sources align directionally and on Uzbekistan's underdog status, though the market shows notably higher confidence in a Colombia victory.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.