Group B · 18 June 2026 · home venue — Canada · Full time

Canada 6–0 Qatar

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Canada
Draw
Qatar

Modelbias-corrected

86%

14%

Sportsbookvig stripped

75%

17%

Polymarket

75%

16%

Model gave this result 86%, books 75%, Polymarket 75% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Canada 2.84 − Qatar 0.41 (Canada +2.43)

2–015.7%
3–014.8%
1–010.9%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Market hedges more than the model · written pre-match

The model puts Canada 11 pp higher than the market — 86% vs 75%.

The model assigns Canada a 85% win probability while the market prices it at 62%, a 23-percentage-point gap favoring the model's confidence. This divergence suggests sportsbook consensus may be pricing in information the statistical model cannot access—recent form swings, lineup changes, or injury developments that have shifted expectations toward a more competitive match than Elo ratings alone would suggest. The market also elevates Qatar's win probability to 15% versus the model's 0.2%, reflecting real-money flows that hedge against upsets. Both sources agree Canada is the clear favorite, but the gap signals the market is hedging more heavily, treating the outcome as less settled than the model's rating implies.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Canada to win with 86% probability, leaving Qatar with no realistic chance of victory in its own right. The underdog faces a formidable gap: the model assigns it 0% win probability while Canada dominates the matchup decisively.

The expected output is heavily skewed toward a Canadian win. A draw remains possible at 14%, reflecting some baseline volatility, but Qatar's path to points is extremely narrow in the model's view. The match is unlikely to be competitive by the model's reckoning; Canada is projected as the clear superior force.

The sportsbook consensus diverges meaningfully from the model. Books assign Canada 74.8% and Qatar 8.4%, a gap of roughly 11 percentage points on either side of the model's estimate. Polymarket prices sit between the two, closer to the sportsbooks. The market credits Qatar with a non-negligible tail of outcomes the model effectively discounts. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.