World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group A · 18 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Czechia 1–1 South Africa

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Czechia
  • Draw
  • South Africa
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 29%, books 26%, Polymarket 25% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Czechia 1.65 − South Africa 0.92 (Czechia +0.72)

Czechia 0 – South Africa 0: 8% 8 Czechia 0 – South Africa 1: 7% 7 Czechia 0 – South Africa 2: 3% 3 Czechia 0 – South Africa 3: 1% Czechia 0 – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 0 – South Africa 5+: 0% Czechia 1 – South Africa 0: 12% 12 Czechia 1 – South Africa 1: 12% 12 Czechia 1 – South Africa 2: 5% 5 Czechia 1 – South Africa 3: 2% Czechia 1 – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 1 – South Africa 5+: 0% Czechia 2 – South Africa 0: 10% 10 Czechia 2 – South Africa 1: 10% 10 Czechia 2 – South Africa 2: 4% 4 Czechia 2 – South Africa 3: 1% Czechia 2 – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 2 – South Africa 5+: 0% Czechia 3 – South Africa 0: 6% 6 Czechia 3 – South Africa 1: 5% 5 Czechia 3 – South Africa 2: 2% Czechia 3 – South Africa 3: 1% Czechia 3 – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 3 – South Africa 5+: 0% Czechia 4 – South Africa 0: 2% Czechia 4 – South Africa 1: 2% Czechia 4 – South Africa 2: 1% Czechia 4 – South Africa 3: 0% Czechia 4 – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 4 – South Africa 5+: 0% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 0: 1% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 1: 1% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 2: 0% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 3: 0% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 4: 0% Czechia 5+ – South Africa 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ South Africa goals → Czechia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Czech Republic with a 53% win probability, placing them as clear favorites on a neutral ground. South Africa's winning chance registers at 18%, creating a gap of roughly 35 percentage points in the favorite's direction.

The draw emerges as a meaningful outcome at 29%, narrowing the margin between outright Czech Republic victory and all other scenarios. The 24-point spread between a Czech Republic win and a South Africa win suggests competitive but asymmetric competition; a draw remains plausible enough to shape match strategy for both sides.

The model and market are closely aligned across all three outcomes. Czech Republic win probabilities differ by fewer than 2 percentage points, draws by under 3 points, and South Africa win chances by roughly 4 points. Polymarket pricing mirrors the sportsbook consensus, indicating broad agreement on the fundamental likelihood structure of this match.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.