World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group A · 18 June 2026 · home venue — Mexico · Full time

Mexico 1–0 South Korea

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Mexico
  • Draw
  • South Korea
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 60%, books 47%, Polymarket 48% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Mexico 1.82 − South Korea 0.81 (Mexico +1.01)

Mexico 0 – South Korea 0: 8% 8 Mexico 0 – South Korea 1: 6% 6 Mexico 0 – South Korea 2: 2% Mexico 0 – South Korea 3: 1% Mexico 0 – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 0 – South Korea 5+: 0% Mexico 1 – South Korea 0: 13% 13 Mexico 1 – South Korea 1: 11% 11 Mexico 1 – South Korea 2: 4% 4 Mexico 1 – South Korea 3: 1% Mexico 1 – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 1 – South Korea 5+: 0% Mexico 2 – South Korea 0: 12% 12 Mexico 2 – South Korea 1: 10% 10 Mexico 2 – South Korea 2: 4% 4 Mexico 2 – South Korea 3: 1% Mexico 2 – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 2 – South Korea 5+: 0% Mexico 3 – South Korea 0: 7% 7 Mexico 3 – South Korea 1: 6% 6 Mexico 3 – South Korea 2: 2% Mexico 3 – South Korea 3: 1% Mexico 3 – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 3 – South Korea 5+: 0% Mexico 4 – South Korea 0: 3% 3 Mexico 4 – South Korea 1: 3% Mexico 4 – South Korea 2: 1% Mexico 4 – South Korea 3: 0% Mexico 4 – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 4 – South Korea 5+: 0% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 0: 2% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 1: 1% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 2: 1% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 3: 0% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 4: 0% Mexico 5+ – South Korea 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ South Korea goals → Mexico goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Mexico at 60% to win, substantially ahead of South Korea's 13% win probability. This represents a clear gap between the two sides in the statistical forecast, though South Korea is not without a path to victory.

The win-draw-loss spread suggests competitive balance in the model's view, with the draw at 27% reflecting meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Mexico's majority-win probability indicates expectation of their dominance, but the quarter-probability assigned to draws signals this is not a heavily one-sided affair in expected match dynamics.

The model and market diverge notably. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both price Mexico closer to 47%, a gap of 13 percentage points below the model, and assign South Korea roughly double the model's 13% win probability. Both market sources align closely with each other but show material separation from the statistical forecast. The dashboard does not adjudicate which view is more accurate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.