World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group B · 18 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Switzerland
  • Draw
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 76%, books 62%, Polymarket 62% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Switzerland 2.34 − Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.56 (Switzerland +1.78)

Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 6% 6 Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 3% Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 1% Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 13% 13 Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 7% 7 Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 2% Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 15% 15 Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 8% 8 Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 2% Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 12% 12 Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 7% 7 Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 2% Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 7% 7 Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 4% 4 Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 1% Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 5% 5 Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 3% Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 1% Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Bosnia and Herzegovina goals → Switzerland goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Switzerland with a 77% win probability, leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina with just a 4% chance of victory. This represents a decisive gap in the forecast, with the favorite heavily preferred on a neutral ground.

The draw emerges as a meaningful possibility at 20%, suggesting the match carries real competitive texture rather than appearing entirely one-sided in outcome shape. The win probabilities diverge sharply—Switzerland's three-in-four chance versus Bosnia and Herzegovina's single-digit probability—but the 20-point spread allows room for an upset or a stalemate rather than assuming a walkover.

The model and sportsbooks diverge meaningfully. The market credits Bosnia and Herzegovina with 15% win probability, roughly four times the model's 4%, and assigns Switzerland only 62% rather than 77%—a 15-percentage-point gap. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better reflects true match likelihood, only that a substantial disagreement exists on the underdog's viability.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.