World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group C · 19 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Brazil 3–0 Haiti

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Brazil
  • Draw
  • Haiti
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 76%, books 86%, Polymarket 88% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Brazil 2.31 − Haiti 0.57 (Brazil +1.74)

Brazil 0 – Haiti 0: 6% 6 Brazil 0 – Haiti 1: 3% Brazil 0 – Haiti 2: 1% Brazil 0 – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 0 – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 0 – Haiti 5+: 0% Brazil 1 – Haiti 0: 13% 13 Brazil 1 – Haiti 1: 8% 8 Brazil 1 – Haiti 2: 2% Brazil 1 – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 1 – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 1 – Haiti 5+: 0% Brazil 2 – Haiti 0: 15% 15 Brazil 2 – Haiti 1: 9% 9 Brazil 2 – Haiti 2: 2% Brazil 2 – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 2 – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 2 – Haiti 5+: 0% Brazil 3 – Haiti 0: 12% 12 Brazil 3 – Haiti 1: 7% 7 Brazil 3 – Haiti 2: 2% Brazil 3 – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 3 – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 3 – Haiti 5+: 0% Brazil 4 – Haiti 0: 7% 7 Brazil 4 – Haiti 1: 4% 4 Brazil 4 – Haiti 2: 1% Brazil 4 – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 4 – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 4 – Haiti 5+: 0% Brazil 5+ – Haiti 0: 5% 5 Brazil 5+ – Haiti 1: 3% Brazil 5+ – Haiti 2: 1% Brazil 5+ – Haiti 3: 0% Brazil 5+ – Haiti 4: 0% Brazil 5+ – Haiti 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Haiti goals → Brazil goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model projects Brazil as a strong favorite with a 76% win probability, leaving Haiti with just a 4% chance of victory. The gap between the two outcomes is substantial, reflecting an asymmetry in expected quality. Haiti's path to an upset remains narrow on this projection.

The model's outcome distribution suggests a decisive lean without flattening the probability entirely. A draw at 20% is the second-most-likely single outcome, indicating that while Brazil is favored to win, the margin is not so dominant as to rule out a competitive match. The three-way spread reflects material uncertainty around whether Brazil converts its advantage into victory or draws instead.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge meaningfully on Brazil's win probability. Books set it at 87%, roughly 11 percentage points higher than the model's 76%. Both sources agree Haiti's win chance sits near 4%, and both assign the draw a relatively low probability—though the model gives it nearly twice the sportsbook odds. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these differing assessments.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.