Scotland v Morocco

Preview

The statistical model favors Morocco with a 61% win probability, placing Scotland at a substantial 13% chance of victory. Morocco is the clear favorite by this framework, though the underdog carries enough probability to remain competitive.

A draw is the second-most-likely outcome at 26% according to the model, suggesting the match will be closely contested despite the gap between the teams' win chances. The distribution reflects a scenario tilted toward Morocco but not one-sided; Scotland's path to victory exists, and a stalemate sits between decisive outcomes.

The market diverges meaningfully from the model. Sportsbook consensus and Polymarket both assign Scotland roughly 10 percentage points higher win probability than the model (23–24% vs 13%), while pricing Morocco 13 percentage points lower (48–49% vs 61%). The model and market are more tightly aligned on draws (26–29%). The dashboard makes no claim to resolve which estimate is correct; the discrepancy merits attention as these two sources of probability diverge beyond minor variation.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.