World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group C · 19 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Scotland 0–1 Morocco

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Scotland
  • Draw
  • Morocco
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 61%, books 55%, Polymarket 56% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Scotland 0.76 − Morocco 1.91 (Morocco +1.15)

Scotland 0 – Morocco 0: 7% 7 Scotland 0 – Morocco 1: 13% 13 Scotland 0 – Morocco 2: 13% 13 Scotland 0 – Morocco 3: 8% 8 Scotland 0 – Morocco 4: 4% 4 Scotland 0 – Morocco 5+: 2% Scotland 1 – Morocco 0: 5% 5 Scotland 1 – Morocco 1: 10% 10 Scotland 1 – Morocco 2: 10% 10 Scotland 1 – Morocco 3: 6% 6 Scotland 1 – Morocco 4: 3% Scotland 1 – Morocco 5+: 2% Scotland 2 – Morocco 0: 2% Scotland 2 – Morocco 1: 4% 4 Scotland 2 – Morocco 2: 4% 4 Scotland 2 – Morocco 3: 2% Scotland 2 – Morocco 4: 1% Scotland 2 – Morocco 5+: 1% Scotland 3 – Morocco 0: 1% Scotland 3 – Morocco 1: 1% Scotland 3 – Morocco 2: 1% Scotland 3 – Morocco 3: 1% Scotland 3 – Morocco 4: 0% Scotland 3 – Morocco 5+: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 0: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 1: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 2: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 3: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 4: 0% Scotland 4 – Morocco 5+: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 0: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 1: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 2: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 3: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 4: 0% Scotland 5+ – Morocco 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Morocco goals → Scotland goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Morocco at 61%, with Scotland positioned as a clear underdog at 13%. Morocco holds a decisive edge in the forecast, though Scotland's 13% baseline win probability suggests the match will not be a formality.

The win-loss spread reflects a substantially favored side, but the 26% draw probability indicates genuine competitive balance in the likely outcome distribution. A draw sits between the two outright results, implying Morocco enters as favorite but Scotland can realistically avoid defeat. The matchup is not a mismatch on the narrow margin—it is competitive in the sense that draws and upsets both remain plausible, even if Morocco's advantage is clear.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge modestly on Morocco's chances, with the market offering 55% versus the model's 61%—a 6 percentage point gap that reflects uncertainty about which forecast is more accurate. Scotland's win probability diverges by a similar span. Draw probabilities align closely across all three sources, clustering near 27%. The dashboard does not adjudicate between model and market readings; both represent informed but fallible estimates.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.