World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group D · 19 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Türkiye
  • Draw
  • Paraguay
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 20%, books 24%, Polymarket 25% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Türkiye 1.56 − Paraguay 0.98 (Türkiye +0.58)

Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 0: 8% 8 Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 1: 7% 7 Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 2: 4% 4 Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 3: 1% Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 0 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 0: 12% 12 Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 1: 12% 12 Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 2: 6% 6 Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 3: 2% Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 1 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 0: 10% 10 Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 1: 9% 9 Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 2: 5% 5 Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 3: 2% Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 2 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 0: 5% 5 Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 1: 5% 5 Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 2: 2% Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 3: 1% Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 3 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 0: 2% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 1: 2% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 2: 1% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 3: 0% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 4 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 0: 1% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 1: 1% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 2: 0% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 3: 0% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 4: 0% Türkiye 5+ – Paraguay 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Paraguay goals → Türkiye goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Turkey at 50%, while Paraguay faces a steeper road at 20%. This represents a clear but not overwhelming advantage for Turkey; the underdog retains meaningful winning chances despite trailing by roughly 30 percentage points in win probability.

The draw emerges as the second-most likely outcome at 30%, suggesting the match will be competitive and closely contested. The W/D/L spread shows Turkey marginally favored but without dominance—a draw is nearly as plausible as a Paraguay victory, indicating genuine uncertainty about the final outcome and pointing toward a tightly matched contest.

The model and sportsbook consensus are closely aligned. Turkey's win probability diverges by roughly 3 percentage points between model and market, while draw and Paraguay win probabilities sit within 2 percentage points of each other. This convergence suggests broad agreement on the match dynamics, though crypto traders assign Paraguay slightly higher win odds than the combined consensus of traditional bookmakers.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.