World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group D · 19 June 2026 · home venue — USA · Full time

USA 2–0 Australia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • USA
  • Draw
  • Australia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 34%, books 60%, Polymarket 61% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: USA 1.21 − Australia 1.29 (Australia +0.08)

USA 0 – Australia 0: 9% 9 USA 0 – Australia 1: 10% 10 USA 0 – Australia 2: 7% 7 USA 0 – Australia 3: 3% USA 0 – Australia 4: 1% USA 0 – Australia 5+: 0% USA 1 – Australia 0: 10% 10 USA 1 – Australia 1: 13% 13 USA 1 – Australia 2: 8% 8 USA 1 – Australia 3: 4% 4 USA 1 – Australia 4: 1% USA 1 – Australia 5+: 0% USA 2 – Australia 0: 6% 6 USA 2 – Australia 1: 8% 8 USA 2 – Australia 2: 5% 5 USA 2 – Australia 3: 2% USA 2 – Australia 4: 1% USA 2 – Australia 5+: 0% USA 3 – Australia 0: 2% USA 3 – Australia 1: 3% 3 USA 3 – Australia 2: 2% USA 3 – Australia 3: 1% USA 3 – Australia 4: 0% USA 3 – Australia 5+: 0% USA 4 – Australia 0: 1% USA 4 – Australia 1: 1% USA 4 – Australia 2: 1% USA 4 – Australia 3: 0% USA 4 – Australia 4: 0% USA 4 – Australia 5+: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 0: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 1: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 2: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 3: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 4: 0% USA 5+ – Australia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Australia goals → USA goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates this match as nearly even, giving Australia a slight edge at 35% to USA's 34%. The gap between the two is marginal—within a single percentage point—reflecting high competitive uncertainty. The market consensus, by contrast, strongly favors USA at 60%, a substantial departure from the model's symmetric view of the contest.

The expected shape of play leans toward parity. Draw probability sits at 32% on the model, indicating that a stalemate is a plausible outcome. The three probabilities are tightly clustered, with no outcome commanding majority confidence. This suggests a competitive, closely matched encounter where the result remains genuinely open.

The divergence between model and market is pronounced. The model's 34-point lead for USA in the market versus its near-parity read represents a meaningful gap. Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbooks, both centering on USA around 60%. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better captures the likely outcome; the discrepancy merits note, however, as it reflects materially different assessments of relative team strength.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.