World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group E · 20 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Ecuador
  • Draw
  • Curaçao
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 16%, books 10%, Polymarket 9% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Ecuador 2.61 − Curaçao 0.47 (Ecuador +2.14)

Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 0: 5% 5 Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 1: 2% Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 2: 1% Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 0 – Curaçao 5+: 0% Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 0: 12% 12 Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 1: 6% 6 Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 2: 1% Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 1 – Curaçao 5+: 0% Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 0: 16% 16 Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 1: 7% 7 Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 2: 2% Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 2 – Curaçao 5+: 0% Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 0: 14% 14 Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 1: 6% 6 Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 2: 1% Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 3 – Curaçao 5+: 0% Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 0: 9% 9 Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 1: 4% 4 Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 2: 1% Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 4 – Curaçao 5+: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 0: 8% 8 Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 1: 4% 4 Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 2: 1% Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 3: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 4: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Curaçao 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Curaçao goals → Ecuador goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Ecuador as a heavy favorite with an 82% win probability, leaving Curaçao a mere 1% chance of victory. The draw sits at 16%, representing the main avenue for an upset result from the underdog's perspective.

The outcome distribution reveals a lopsided match. Ecuador's win probability vastly exceeds draw and loss probabilities combined for Curaçao, suggesting the model expects Ecuador to control proceedings. A draw remains plausible—one in six outcomes—but a Curaçao victory is treated as a tail event. This is not a competitive matchup in probabilistic terms.

The model and market align broadly on Ecuador's dominance but diverge on Curaçao's chances. The model assigns Curaçao 1%, while sportsbooks and Polymarket both place them near 4%. Conversely, the model's draw probability of 16% sits above market consensus at 10% or below. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these readings; the discrepancies are small in magnitude but worth noting for those monitoring market-versus-model spread trends.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.