World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group E · 20 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Germany 2–1 Côte d'Ivoire

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Germany
  • Draw
  • Côte d'Ivoire
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 60%, books 63%, Polymarket 64% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Germany 1.80 − Côte d'Ivoire 0.82 (Germany +0.99)

Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 8% 8 Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 6% 6 Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 2% Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 1% Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 0 – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 13% 13 Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 11% 11 Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 4% 4 Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 1% Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 1 – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 12% 12 Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 10% 10 Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 4% 4 Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 1% Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 2 – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 7% 7 Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 6% 6 Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 2% Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 1% Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 3 – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 3% 3 Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 3% Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 1% Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 0% Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 4 – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 0: 2% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 1: 1% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 2: 1% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 3: 0% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 4: 0% Germany 5+ – Côte d'Ivoire 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Côte d'Ivoire goals → Germany goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Germany at 60%, with Ivory Coast a clear underdog at 13%. That 47-percentage-point gap reflects a substantial disparity in forecast strength, though the underdog retains a path to victory in roughly one in eight scenarios.

The spread reveals a favorite comfortable but not dominant. The draw sits at 27%, making it the second-most-likely outcome and a meaningful possibility—neither side is projected to overwhelm the other. The match profile suggests Germany as probable winners, but with genuine competitive range; Ivory Coast enters with a realistic chance to disrupt.

The model and sportsbooks diverge modestly. Books price Germany 3 points higher and compress the draw to 21%; Polymarket sits between, slightly favoring the German win further. The gaps are not wide enough to flag a structural disagreement, though the model's higher draw probability (27% vs. 21% at the consensus) merits noting. The dashboard does not adjudicate which reading of the draw likelihood is correct.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.