World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group F · 20 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Netherlands 5–1 Sweden

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Netherlands
  • Draw
  • Sweden
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 67%, books 55%, Polymarket 55% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Netherlands 2.02 − Sweden 0.70 (Netherlands +1.32)

Netherlands 0 – Sweden 0: 7% 7 Netherlands 0 – Sweden 1: 4% 4 Netherlands 0 – Sweden 2: 2% Netherlands 0 – Sweden 3: 0% Netherlands 0 – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 0 – Sweden 5+: 0% Netherlands 1 – Sweden 0: 13% 13 Netherlands 1 – Sweden 1: 10% 10 Netherlands 1 – Sweden 2: 3% 3 Netherlands 1 – Sweden 3: 1% Netherlands 1 – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 1 – Sweden 5+: 0% Netherlands 2 – Sweden 0: 13% 13 Netherlands 2 – Sweden 1: 9% 9 Netherlands 2 – Sweden 2: 3% 3 Netherlands 2 – Sweden 3: 1% Netherlands 2 – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 2 – Sweden 5+: 0% Netherlands 3 – Sweden 0: 9% 9 Netherlands 3 – Sweden 1: 6% 6 Netherlands 3 – Sweden 2: 2% Netherlands 3 – Sweden 3: 1% Netherlands 3 – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 3 – Sweden 5+: 0% Netherlands 4 – Sweden 0: 5% 5 Netherlands 4 – Sweden 1: 3% 3 Netherlands 4 – Sweden 2: 1% Netherlands 4 – Sweden 3: 0% Netherlands 4 – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 4 – Sweden 5+: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 0: 3% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 1: 2% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 2: 1% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 3: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 4: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Sweden 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Sweden goals → Netherlands goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Netherlands at 68% to win, leaving Sweden with an 8% chance of victory. This is a heavily asymmetric matchup according to the statistical forecast, positioning the Netherlands as a strong favorite on a neutral pitch.

The draw sits at 24%, suggesting modest but real likelihood of a stalemate. The 60-percentage-point gap between Netherlands' win probability and Sweden's reflects a one-sided expected outcome, though the 24% draw probability indicates the match is not a foregone conclusion. Competitive balance is low; the model sees Sweden as a substantial underdog.

The market consensus diverges notably from the model. Sportsbooks price Netherlands at 56% and Sweden at 20%—a 12-percentage-point gap favoring the Swedes relative to the model's assessment. Polymarket aligns closely with sportsbooks. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source is more accurate; the spread reflects genuine disagreement about Swedish prospects on the day.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.