World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group F · 20 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Tunisia 0–4 Japan

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Tunisia
  • Draw
  • Japan
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 71%, books 62%, Polymarket 63% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Tunisia 0.61 − Japan 2.21 (Japan +1.60)

Tunisia 0 – Japan 0: 6% 6 Tunisia 0 – Japan 1: 13% 13 Tunisia 0 – Japan 2: 15% 15 Tunisia 0 – Japan 3: 11% 11 Tunisia 0 – Japan 4: 6% 6 Tunisia 0 – Japan 5+: 4% 4 Tunisia 1 – Japan 0: 3% 3 Tunisia 1 – Japan 1: 8% 8 Tunisia 1 – Japan 2: 9% 9 Tunisia 1 – Japan 3: 7% 7 Tunisia 1 – Japan 4: 4% 4 Tunisia 1 – Japan 5+: 2% Tunisia 2 – Japan 0: 1% Tunisia 2 – Japan 1: 2% Tunisia 2 – Japan 2: 3% Tunisia 2 – Japan 3: 2% Tunisia 2 – Japan 4: 1% Tunisia 2 – Japan 5+: 1% Tunisia 3 – Japan 0: 0% Tunisia 3 – Japan 1: 0% Tunisia 3 – Japan 2: 1% Tunisia 3 – Japan 3: 0% Tunisia 3 – Japan 4: 0% Tunisia 3 – Japan 5+: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 0: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 1: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 2: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 3: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 4: 0% Tunisia 4 – Japan 5+: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 0: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 1: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 2: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 3: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 4: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Japan 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Japan goals → Tunisia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

Japan emerges as a clear favorite in the model forecast, assigned a 71% win probability against Tunisia's 8%. The gap reflects a substantial asymmetry, with Japan favored to control the majority of match outcomes.

The 21% draw probability signals meaningful competitive uncertainty within that framework. Tunisia's win chance remains modest, but the draw sits between the two outright outcomes, indicating that a stalemate is more plausible than a Tunisian victory. This spread suggests Japan enters as the likely victor, yet the match carries enough structural uncertainty that a result other than a Japanese win carries roughly three-in-ten odds.

The sportsbook consensus diverges notably from the model, offering Tunisia a 15% win probability—nearly double the model's 8%—while trimming Japan's win probability to 60%. The draw probability remains broadly aligned at 24%. This 7-percentage-point gap in Tunisia's favor warrants notice. Polymarket prices align more closely with the sportsbooks than the model on Tunisia and Japan odds. The dashboard makes no claim about which source is correct; traders and bookmakers may hold information unavailable to the statistical forecast.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.