Group G · 21 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Belgium 0–0 Iran

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Belgium
Draw
Iran

Modelbias-corrected

38%

32%

30%

Sportsbookvig stripped

66%

21%

13%

Polymarket

68%

21%

12%

Model gave this result 32%, books 21%, Polymarket 21% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Belgium 1.31 − Iran 1.19 (Belgium +0.11)

1–113.1%
1–010.4%
0–19.4%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Market more confident than the model · written pre-match

The market puts Belgium 28 pp higher than the model — 66% vs 38%.

The sportsbooks assign Belgium a 67% win probability versus the model's 38%, a 29-percentage-point gap favoring the favorite. The market also compresses Iran's chances to 13% from the model's 30%, suggesting genuine information tightening Belgium's edge rather than random noise. Recent form, lineup availability, or injury status could account for this sharpening—the model's Elo baseline may not reflect current squad condition or momentum that real-money traders can observe. The dashboard flags this divergence as a significant signal worth monitoring; neither source is self-evidently correct, but the gap's direction and magnitude invite scrutiny of what changed since the model's last update.

Pre-match preview

The model favours Belgium to win at 38%, but edges into closer territory than sportsbook consensus suggests. Iran's win probability of 30% sits only 8 percentage points below Belgium's in the forecast, making this a notably competitive fixture by the model's assessment. The underdog threat is material.

The draw at 32% represents the modal outcome in the model's distribution, indicating genuine uncertainty about the match result. The three outcomes cluster within a 8-point band—no outcome falls below 30%—suggesting the match could plausibly unfold in any direction. This reflects a tight competitive balance rather than a heavily tilted contest.

The model and market diverge substantially. Sportsbooks compress Belgium's win to 67%, assign the draw just 21%, and reduce Iran's chance to 13%. That represents roughly a 28-point gap in Belgium's favour between the two sources and a 19-point gap on the draw. The Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard makes no claim as to which view is correct; the disagreement itself flags material uncertainty in how this fixture will resolve.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.