Belgium v Iran

Preview

The model favors Belgium at 38%, but the match remains competitive. Iran's win probability stands at 30%, only 8 percentage points lower, while the draw lands at 32%—nearly as likely as either outcome alone. This narrow gap suggests uncertainty rather than a clear hierarchy.

The W/D/L spread reflects a tight contest. A draw emerges as a genuinely plausible result, occurring in roughly one match in three according to the model. Belgium holds a modest edge in win probability, but Iran's chances remain substantial. The match is unlikely to be one-sided; close scorelines and parity in expected performance characterize the forecast.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices diverge sharply from the model. Both commercial sources assign Belgium a roughly 68–70% win probability, roughly 30 percentage points above the model. They also compress Iran's chances to 10–12%, nearly three times lower than the model's 30%. This gap is meaningful and material. The dashboard makes no claim as to which source better predicts the outcome; users should note the disagreement and form their own view.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.