World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group G · 21 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

New Zealand 1–3 Egypt

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • New Zealand
  • Draw
  • Egypt
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 47%, books 60%, Polymarket 60% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: New Zealand 0.98 − Egypt 1.56 (Egypt +0.57)

New Zealand 0 – Egypt 0: 8% 8 New Zealand 0 – Egypt 1: 12% 12 New Zealand 0 – Egypt 2: 10% 10 New Zealand 0 – Egypt 3: 5% 5 New Zealand 0 – Egypt 4: 2% New Zealand 0 – Egypt 5+: 1% New Zealand 1 – Egypt 0: 7% 7 New Zealand 1 – Egypt 1: 12% 12 New Zealand 1 – Egypt 2: 9% 9 New Zealand 1 – Egypt 3: 5% 5 New Zealand 1 – Egypt 4: 2% New Zealand 1 – Egypt 5+: 1% New Zealand 2 – Egypt 0: 4% 4 New Zealand 2 – Egypt 1: 6% 6 New Zealand 2 – Egypt 2: 5% 5 New Zealand 2 – Egypt 3: 2% New Zealand 2 – Egypt 4: 1% New Zealand 2 – Egypt 5+: 0% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 0: 1% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 1: 2% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 2: 2% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 3: 1% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 4: 0% New Zealand 3 – Egypt 5+: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 0: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 1: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 2: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 3: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 4: 0% New Zealand 4 – Egypt 5+: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 0: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 1: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 2: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 3: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 4: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Egypt 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Egypt goals → New Zealand goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Egypt at 47%, with New Zealand trailing at 23% and a draw at 30%. Egypt enters as the statistical favorite, but the model assigns nearly one-in-four odds to a New Zealand upset, reflecting meaningful uncertainty in a fixture where neither side is prohibitive.

The W/D/L spread reveals a moderately competitive match. The draw probability at 30% indicates the teams are close enough that stalemate ranks as a plausible outcome, yet Egypt's win probability exceeds New Zealand's by 24 percentage points, suggesting a clear directional lean without dominance. The match is expected to be contested rather than one-sided.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices diverge from the model meaningfully. Both market sources place Egypt at 60%, roughly 13 percentage points higher than the model's 47%. Conversely, the market assigns New Zealand only 16%, about 7 points below the model, and draws at 24%, 6 points lower. The model sees Egypt as favored but less heavily; the markets have compressed New Zealand's chances and elevated Egypt further. The dashboard makes no claim about which assessment is more accurate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.