World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group H · 21 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Spain
  • Draw
  • Saudi Arabia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 90%, books 87%, Polymarket 88% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Spain 3.26 − Saudi Arabia 0.33 (Spain +2.93)

Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 0: 3% Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 1: 1% Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 2: 0% Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 0 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 0: 9% 9 Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 1: 3% 3 Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 2: 0% Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 1 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 0: 15% 15 Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 1: 5% 5 Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 2: 1% Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 2 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 0: 16% 16 Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 1: 5% 5 Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 2: 1% Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 3 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 0: 13% 13 Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 1: 4% 4 Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 2: 1% Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 4 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 0: 17% 17 Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 1: 5% 5 Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 2: 1% Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Spain 5+ – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Saudi Arabia goals → Spain goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Spain as a heavy favorite with an 89% win probability, leaving Saudi Arabia with a negligible 0% chance in its framework. This reflects a decisive gap between the two sides based on the statistical inputs available to the forecast.

The draw carries 10% implied probability under the model, making it the only realistic alternative to a Spain victory. The win-loss spread is wide, indicating the model expects Spain to control play and decision-making. A Saudi Arabia upset registers as structurally implausible within these parameters, though a low-scoring or defensive draw remains a plausible outcome.

The model and sportsbook consensus are closely aligned on the Spain win probability, differing by only 2 percentage points. The market assigns Saudi Arabia a 4% win chance compared to the model's 0%, and rates the draw 1 percentage point lower. These gaps suggest modest disagreement about tail risk and draw likelihood rather than fundamental conflict on the favorite's superiority.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.