World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group H · 21 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Uruguay 2–2 Cabo Verde

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Uruguay
  • Draw
  • Cabo Verde
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 21%, books 22%, Polymarket 22% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Uruguay 2.24 − Cabo Verde 0.60 (Uruguay +1.64)

Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 0: 6% 6 Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 1: 3% 3 Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 2: 1% Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 3: 0% Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 0 – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 0: 13% 13 Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 1: 8% 8 Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 2: 2% Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 3: 0% Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 1 – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 0: 15% 15 Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 1: 9% 9 Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 2: 3% Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 3: 1% Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 2 – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 0: 11% 11 Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 1: 7% 7 Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 2: 2% Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 3: 0% Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 3 – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 0: 6% 6 Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 1: 4% 4 Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 2: 1% Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 3: 0% Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 4 – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 0: 4% 4 Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 1: 3% Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 2: 1% Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 3: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 4: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Cabo Verde 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Cabo Verde goals → Uruguay goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Uruguay to win with a 74% probability, placing Cape Verde as a substantial underdog at 5%. This represents a 69-percentage-point gap, reflecting a clear hierarchy between the teams in the statistical forecast.

The outcome distribution suggests Uruguay enters as the commanding favorite, yet the draw carries meaningful weight at 21%. The model indicates a competitive match is unlikely—Cape Verde's low win probability reflects a large performance gap—though a stalemate remains plausible enough to warrant representation in the forecast.

The model and sportsbooks diverge noticeably on Cape Verde's chances. The books collectively price a Cape Verde win at 12%, roughly double the model's 5% estimate. The model is more confident in Uruguay dominance. Both sources align on the draw near 22% and Uruguay's win probability within roughly 8 percentage points. The dashboard does not claim to know which assessment of Cape Verde's upside is correct.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.