Uruguay v Cabo Verde

Preview

The model favours Uruguay at 74%, offering a commanding advantage over Cape Verde's 5% win probability. This 69-percentage-point gap reflects a heavily asymmetric matchup in which the favourite is substantially more likely to secure three points.

The W/D/L distribution suggests a competitive performance from Uruguay rather than a rout. A draw lands at 21%, implying genuine defensive competence or tactical balance sufficient to prevent a decisive result in roughly one match in five. Cape Verde's 5% win chance, while slim, sits above the noise floor — the match is not predetermined.

The model and market diverge notably. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both assign Cape Verde roughly 12%, a gap of 7–8 percentage points above the model's 5%. Both markets also trim Uruguay's win probability to 66–68%, a similar 6–8 point dip. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these views; the gap warrants attention from users building their own forecasts.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.