World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group I · 22 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

France 3–0 Iraq

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • France
  • Draw
  • Iraq
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 83%, books 88%, Polymarket 90% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: France 2.67 − Iraq 0.45 (France +2.22)

France 0 – Iraq 0: 5% 5 France 0 – Iraq 1: 2% France 0 – Iraq 2: 0% France 0 – Iraq 3: 0% France 0 – Iraq 4: 0% France 0 – Iraq 5+: 0% France 1 – Iraq 0: 12% 12 France 1 – Iraq 1: 5% 5 France 1 – Iraq 2: 1% France 1 – Iraq 3: 0% France 1 – Iraq 4: 0% France 1 – Iraq 5+: 0% France 2 – Iraq 0: 16% 16 France 2 – Iraq 1: 7% 7 France 2 – Iraq 2: 2% France 2 – Iraq 3: 0% France 2 – Iraq 4: 0% France 2 – Iraq 5+: 0% France 3 – Iraq 0: 14% 14 France 3 – Iraq 1: 6% 6 France 3 – Iraq 2: 1% France 3 – Iraq 3: 0% France 3 – Iraq 4: 0% France 3 – Iraq 5+: 0% France 4 – Iraq 0: 9% 9 France 4 – Iraq 1: 4% 4 France 4 – Iraq 2: 1% France 4 – Iraq 3: 0% France 4 – Iraq 4: 0% France 4 – Iraq 5+: 0% France 5+ – Iraq 0: 8% 8 France 5+ – Iraq 1: 4% 4 France 5+ – Iraq 2: 1% France 5+ – Iraq 3: 0% France 5+ – Iraq 4: 0% France 5+ – Iraq 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Iraq goals → France goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors France at 84% to win, leaving Iraq with less than 1% probability of victory. The gap reflects a large expected asymmetry in quality or circumstance. Iraq's underdog position is pronounced under all three probability sources.

The model assigns a 16% chance to a draw, the highest probability outcome for any single result apart from a France win. This split suggests France are favored but not overwhelmingly so in absolute terms; competitive matches often settle via draws, and this one carries meaningful probability of that outcome. A France win remains the clear baseline, yet the match is not modeled as a formality.

The model and sportsbooks diverge noticeably on Iraq's chances. The model puts them at 0.8%, while the market consensus sits near 3%, a gap of roughly 2 percentage points. The market is also more bullish on France outright (89–90%) and more skeptical of draws (7–8%) than the model. The dashboard does not adjudicate which reading is more accurate; users may weigh both assessments in their own forecasts.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.