France v Iraq

Preview

The model projects France to win with 82% probability, leaving Iraq with a 1% chance of victory. That asymmetry reflects a substantial gap in the underlying estimates. Iraq's path to a positive result relies almost entirely on the draw, which the model assigns 16% likelihood.

The win-draw-loss spread indicates a heavily favored contest. France's 82% win probability dominates the forecast, but the 16% draw probability suggests the match could plausibly remain level through regulation. An Iraq upset is not forecasted as a realistic outcome under the model's estimates. Competitive tension exists mainly around whether France wins decisively or draws.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge on the exact distribution. Books price France's win probability 2 percentage points higher than the model and assign Iraq nearly 4 times the model's win probability. Polymarket prices lean even further toward France and further suppress the draw. The dashboard makes no claim about which view is correct—it notes the gap and flags that market participants estimate Iraq's upset probability at a materially higher level than the statistical model does.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.