World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group J · 22 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Jordan 1–2 Algeria

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Jordan
  • Draw
  • Algeria
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 45%, books 61%, Polymarket 61% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Jordan 1.02 − Algeria 1.51 (Algeria +0.50)

Jordan 0 – Algeria 0: 8% 8 Jordan 0 – Algeria 1: 12% 12 Jordan 0 – Algeria 2: 9% 9 Jordan 0 – Algeria 3: 5% 5 Jordan 0 – Algeria 4: 2% Jordan 0 – Algeria 5+: 1% Jordan 1 – Algeria 0: 8% 8 Jordan 1 – Algeria 1: 13% 13 Jordan 1 – Algeria 2: 9% 9 Jordan 1 – Algeria 3: 5% 5 Jordan 1 – Algeria 4: 2% Jordan 1 – Algeria 5+: 1% Jordan 2 – Algeria 0: 4% 4 Jordan 2 – Algeria 1: 6% 6 Jordan 2 – Algeria 2: 5% 5 Jordan 2 – Algeria 3: 2% Jordan 2 – Algeria 4: 1% Jordan 2 – Algeria 5+: 0% Jordan 3 – Algeria 0: 1% Jordan 3 – Algeria 1: 2% Jordan 3 – Algeria 2: 2% Jordan 3 – Algeria 3: 1% Jordan 3 – Algeria 4: 0% Jordan 3 – Algeria 5+: 0% Jordan 4 – Algeria 0: 0% Jordan 4 – Algeria 1: 1% Jordan 4 – Algeria 2: 0% Jordan 4 – Algeria 3: 0% Jordan 4 – Algeria 4: 0% Jordan 4 – Algeria 5+: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 0: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 1: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 2: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 3: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 4: 0% Jordan 5+ – Algeria 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Algeria goals → Jordan goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Algeria at 45%, while Jordan's win probability registers at 24%. Algeria enters as clear favorite, though the model assigns Jordan nearly a one-in-four chance of victory—substantially higher than the sportsbook consensus of 16%.

The draw emerges as a live outcome at 30%, the second-most probable result in the model's forecast. This suggests a competitive match with meaningful uncertainty around the outcome. The 21-percentage-point gap between Algeria's win chance and Jordan's reflects an asymmetry, but the elevated draw probability indicates the teams are not far apart in likely quality, and a stalemate remains plausible.

The model and market diverge meaningfully on Jordan's chances. The books price Jordan at 16% compared to the model's 24%—an 8-percentage-point gap. Conversely, the sportsbooks push Algeria to 61%, roughly 16 points above the model. Polymarket prices align closely with the book consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these readings; users should weigh the differences when assessing value.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.