Group J · 22 June 2026 · neutral venue

Jordan v Algeria

Three views of the match

Jordan
Draw
Algeria

Modelbias-corrected

26%

31%

44%

Sportsbook37 books, vig stripped

16%

23%

61%

Polymarket

14%

21%

65%

Market more confident than the model

The market puts Algeria 18 pp higher than the model — 61% vs 44%.

The market assigns Algeria a 61% win probability versus the model's 44%, a 17-percentage-point gap favoring the favorite. The model sees materially closer odds across all three outcomes, whereas sportsbooks and prediction markets have sharpened conviction around an Algeria victory. This divergence likely reflects information available to real-money markets but not the model's training data—recent form, injury status, or lineup changes could all shift expectations toward Algeria without altering the fundamental Elo balance. The dashboard flags this as a signal worth monitoring: either the market has detected concrete new information tightening the race, or both sources are simply calibrated differently on the same underlying matchup.

Preview

The model favours Algeria to win at 44%, while Jordan's win probability stands at 26%. This represents a meaningful gap: the model sees Algeria as clear favorites, though not overwhelming ones. Jordan retains a credible path to victory, giving the match competitive structure despite the probability lean.

The draw emerges as a plausible outcome at 31%, the second-most-likely single result. This relatively high draw probability—only 13 points below the favorite—suggests the model expects a tightly contested match. The win probabilities for both teams are separated by less than 18 points, indicating neither side is heavily favored to win in regulation. A close, competitive fixture is the modal expectation.

The market significantly underestimates Jordan's chances. The sportsbook consensus places Jordan at 16% (9 points below the model) and Algeria at 61% (17 points above). Polymarket prices show an even sharper tilt toward Algeria at 65%. The model and market disagree materially on the favorite's win probability and on the draw's likelihood. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.