World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group I · 22 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Norway 3–2 Senegal

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Norway
  • Draw
  • Senegal
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 43%, books 42%, Polymarket 42% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Norway 1.41 − Senegal 1.10 (Norway +0.32)

Norway 0 – Senegal 0: 8% 8 Norway 0 – Senegal 1: 9% 9 Norway 0 – Senegal 2: 5% 5 Norway 0 – Senegal 3: 2% Norway 0 – Senegal 4: 0% Norway 0 – Senegal 5+: 0% Norway 1 – Senegal 0: 11% 11 Norway 1 – Senegal 1: 13% 13 Norway 1 – Senegal 2: 7% 7 Norway 1 – Senegal 3: 3% Norway 1 – Senegal 4: 1% Norway 1 – Senegal 5+: 0% Norway 2 – Senegal 0: 8% 8 Norway 2 – Senegal 1: 9% 9 Norway 2 – Senegal 2: 5% 5 Norway 2 – Senegal 3: 2% Norway 2 – Senegal 4: 0% Norway 2 – Senegal 5+: 0% Norway 3 – Senegal 0: 4% 4 Norway 3 – Senegal 1: 4% 4 Norway 3 – Senegal 2: 2% Norway 3 – Senegal 3: 1% Norway 3 – Senegal 4: 0% Norway 3 – Senegal 5+: 0% Norway 4 – Senegal 0: 1% Norway 4 – Senegal 1: 1% Norway 4 – Senegal 2: 1% Norway 4 – Senegal 3: 0% Norway 4 – Senegal 4: 0% Norway 4 – Senegal 5+: 0% Norway 5+ – Senegal 0: 0% Norway 5+ – Senegal 1: 1% Norway 5+ – Senegal 2: 0% Norway 5+ – Senegal 3: 0% Norway 5+ – Senegal 4: 0% Norway 5+ – Senegal 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Senegal goals → Norway goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Norway as the marginal favorite with a 43% win probability, while Senegal's chances stand at 26%—a gap of 17 percentage points. The Scandinavian side holds a modest edge in the statistical forecast, but the underdog retains a realistic path to victory on a neutral ground.

The draw emerges as the second-most likely outcome at 31%, suggesting this match could unfold as a competitive, even contest. The spread across outcomes indicates neither side is heavily favored to dominate; a single goal or defensive resilience could easily swing the result, making a stalemate plausible.

The model and sportsbook consensus are closely aligned across all three outcomes, with no gap exceeding 3 percentage points. Polymarket prices track similarly tight to both. This convergence suggests broad agreement on the competitive balance, and the dashboard registers no material divergence between statistical and market assessment.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.