World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group K · 23 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Colombia 1–0 DR Congo

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Colombia
  • Draw
  • DR Congo
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 75%, books 63%, Polymarket 65% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Colombia 2.28 − DR Congo 0.58 (Colombia +1.70)

Colombia 0 – DR Congo 0: 6% 6 Colombia 0 – DR Congo 1: 3% 3 Colombia 0 – DR Congo 2: 1% Colombia 0 – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 0 – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 0 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Colombia 1 – DR Congo 0: 13% 13 Colombia 1 – DR Congo 1: 8% 8 Colombia 1 – DR Congo 2: 2% Colombia 1 – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 1 – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 1 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Colombia 2 – DR Congo 0: 15% 15 Colombia 2 – DR Congo 1: 9% 9 Colombia 2 – DR Congo 2: 3% Colombia 2 – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 2 – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 2 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Colombia 3 – DR Congo 0: 11% 11 Colombia 3 – DR Congo 1: 7% 7 Colombia 3 – DR Congo 2: 2% Colombia 3 – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 3 – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 3 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Colombia 4 – DR Congo 0: 6% 6 Colombia 4 – DR Congo 1: 4% 4 Colombia 4 – DR Congo 2: 1% Colombia 4 – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 4 – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 4 – DR Congo 5+: 0% Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 0: 5% 5 Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 1: 3% Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 2: 1% Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 3: 0% Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 4: 0% Colombia 5+ – DR Congo 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ DR Congo goals → Colombia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Colombia heavily, assigning them a 75% win probability. DR Congo enters as a substantial underdog at just 4%, leaving the draw as the only plausible alternative outcome at 21%.

The spread reflects a match expected to lean decisively toward Colombia, though the 20% draw probability suggests competitive play remains possible. A DR Congo victory falls well outside the model's central expectations; the forecast is concentrated on either a Colombian win or a stalemate rather than a competitive three-way contest.

The model and market diverge notably on the extremes. The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices both rate DR Congo's chances at roughly 13–14%, about 9 percentage points higher than the model. Conversely, both betting sources grade Colombia at 61–63%, roughly 12 percentage points lower than the model. The draw assessments align closely across all three sources. This gap suggests the market sees tighter margins than the model's statistical approach does; the dashboard does not adjudicate which view is more sound.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.