World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group L · 23 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

England 0–0 Ghana

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • England
  • Draw
  • Ghana
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 13%, books 15%, Polymarket 14% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: England 2.97 − Ghana 0.38 (England +2.59)

England 0 – Ghana 0: 4% 4 England 0 – Ghana 1: 1% England 0 – Ghana 2: 0% England 0 – Ghana 3: 0% England 0 – Ghana 4: 0% England 0 – Ghana 5+: 0% England 1 – Ghana 0: 10% 10 England 1 – Ghana 1: 4% 4 England 1 – Ghana 2: 1% England 1 – Ghana 3: 0% England 1 – Ghana 4: 0% England 1 – Ghana 5+: 0% England 2 – Ghana 0: 16% 16 England 2 – Ghana 1: 6% 6 England 2 – Ghana 2: 1% England 2 – Ghana 3: 0% England 2 – Ghana 4: 0% England 2 – Ghana 5+: 0% England 3 – Ghana 0: 15% 15 England 3 – Ghana 1: 6% 6 England 3 – Ghana 2: 1% England 3 – Ghana 3: 0% England 3 – Ghana 4: 0% England 3 – Ghana 5+: 0% England 4 – Ghana 0: 11% 11 England 4 – Ghana 1: 4% 4 England 4 – Ghana 2: 1% England 4 – Ghana 3: 0% England 4 – Ghana 4: 0% England 4 – Ghana 5+: 0% England 5+ – Ghana 0: 12% 12 England 5+ – Ghana 1: 5% 5 England 5+ – Ghana 2: 1% England 5+ – Ghana 3: 0% England 5+ – Ghana 4: 0% England 5+ – Ghana 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Ghana goals → England goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors England at 87%, leaving Ghana with a nominal 0% win probability. This represents a stark asymmetry: the statistical forecast sees virtually no path to a Ghanaian victory, while the underdog is assigned only a draw chance of 13%.

The win-draw-loss spread reflects a heavily one-sided contest in the model's view. England's dominant favorite status compresses the probability space; a draw emerges as the sole realistic alternative to an England win. The match is not expected to be closely matched, with the model assigning negligible upset potential.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices both assign Ghana a meaningful chance to win—around 6% and 5.5% respectively—and grade the draw slightly higher than the model does. This represents a material divergence: the market is roughly 6 percentage points more bullish on Ghana than the statistical forecast. The dashboard does not adjudicate which view is correct, only that meaningful disagreement exists between the model and consensus pricing.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.