World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group L · 23 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Panama 0–1 Croatia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Panama
  • Draw
  • Croatia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 46%, books 62%, Polymarket 63% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Panama 1.00 − Croatia 1.54 (Croatia +0.55)

Panama 0 – Croatia 0: 8% 8 Panama 0 – Croatia 1: 12% 12 Panama 0 – Croatia 2: 9% 9 Panama 0 – Croatia 3: 5% 5 Panama 0 – Croatia 4: 2% Panama 0 – Croatia 5+: 1% Panama 1 – Croatia 0: 8% 8 Panama 1 – Croatia 1: 12% 12 Panama 1 – Croatia 2: 9% 9 Panama 1 – Croatia 3: 5% 5 Panama 1 – Croatia 4: 2% Panama 1 – Croatia 5+: 1% Panama 2 – Croatia 0: 4% 4 Panama 2 – Croatia 1: 6% 6 Panama 2 – Croatia 2: 5% 5 Panama 2 – Croatia 3: 2% Panama 2 – Croatia 4: 1% Panama 2 – Croatia 5+: 0% Panama 3 – Croatia 0: 1% Panama 3 – Croatia 1: 2% Panama 3 – Croatia 2: 2% Panama 3 – Croatia 3: 1% Panama 3 – Croatia 4: 0% Panama 3 – Croatia 5+: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 0: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 1: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 2: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 3: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 4: 0% Panama 4 – Croatia 5+: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 0: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 1: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 2: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 3: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 4: 0% Panama 5+ – Croatia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Croatia goals → Panama goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model assigns Croatia a 46% chance of victory, making them the favorite, while Panama's win probability stands at 23%. The underdog holds meaningful but minority odds in a match where neither side commands overwhelming confidence in the statistical forecast.

The 30% draw probability indicates a competitive match with genuine uncertainty across all three outcomes. The 23-point gap between Croatia's win chance and Panama's reflects a clear but not dominant advantage. A draw remains plausible enough to merit real consideration, suggesting the teams are closer in estimated strength than a blowout scoreline would imply.

The market materially diverges from the model. Sportsbooks assign Croatia 64% and Panama 14%, a spread 9 percentage points wider in Croatia's favor than the model projects. Polymarket reflects similar sentiment at 65% and 12%. The dashboard does not claim to know whether this confidence in Croatia is better calibrated than the model's more cautious assessment, but the gap warrants noting.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.