World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group K · 23 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Portugal
  • Draw
  • Uzbekistan
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 66%, books 80%, Polymarket 82% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Portugal 1.97 − Uzbekistan 0.73 (Portugal +1.24)

Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 0: 7% 7 Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 1: 5% 5 Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 2: 2% Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 3: 0% Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 0 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 0: 13% 13 Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 1: 10% 10 Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 2: 3% 3 Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 3: 1% Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 1 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 0: 13% 13 Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 1: 10% 10 Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 2: 3% 3 Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 3: 1% Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 2 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 0: 9% 9 Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 1: 6% 6 Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 2: 2% Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 3: 1% Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 3 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 0: 4% 4 Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 1: 3% 3 Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 2: 1% Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 3: 0% Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 4 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 0: 2% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 1: 2% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 2: 1% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 3: 0% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 4: 0% Portugal 5+ – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Uzbekistan goals → Portugal goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Portugal at 66%, with Uzbekistan holding a 9% chance of victory. The sportsbook consensus is substantially more confident in a Portugal win, assigning it 83%—a gap of 17 percentage points—while pricing Uzbekistan at just 5%.

The model's forecast suggests a competitive match. Portugal's two-to-one edge in win probability leaves meaningful room for either an Uzbekistan upset or a draw at nearly one-in-four odds. The sportsbook spreads tell a different story: draws compress to 12%, and Uzbekistan's path to victory narrows considerably. The model sees this as a fairly open contest; the market views it as heavily tilted.

The divergence between model and market is substantial across all three outcomes. The model's draw probability exceeds the sportsbook's by 13 percentage points, while the sportsbook extends Portugal's advantage by 17 points. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with sportsbooks. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct, only that they differ meaningfully on match competitiveness and draw likelihood.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.