World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group B · 24 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Draw
  • Qatar
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 47%, books 67%, Polymarket 68% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.49 − Qatar 1.04 (Bosnia and Herzegovina +0.45)

Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 0: 8% 8 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 1: 8% 8 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 2: 4% 4 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 3: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 4: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 – Qatar 5+: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 0: 12% 12 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 1: 13% 13 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 2: 6% 6 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 3: 2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 4: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 – Qatar 5+: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 0: 9% 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 1: 9% 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 2: 5% 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 3: 2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 4: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 – Qatar 5+: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 0: 4% 4 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 1: 5% 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 2: 2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 3: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 4: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – Qatar 5+: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 0: 2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 1: 2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 2: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 3: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 4: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 – Qatar 5+: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 0: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 1: 1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 2: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 3: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 4: 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+ – Qatar 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Qatar goals → Bosnia and Herzegovina goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Bosnia and Herzegovina as favorite with a 47% win probability, while Qatar's chances stand at 23%. The statistical forecast grants the underdog less than a quarter likelihood of victory, positioning this as a competitive but asymmetric contest.

The draw probability of 31% indicates meaningful uncertainty in the outcome. The gap between Bosnia and Herzegovina's win chance and Qatar's reflects a modest edge rather than dominance. A draw remains a plausible result, suggesting the match could be contested closely across ninety minutes without a decisive winner emerging.

The market consensus diverges notably from the model. Sportsbooks place Bosnia and Herzegovina at 68%, roughly 21 percentage points higher than the model's 47%, while simultaneously pricing Qatar at 13%—a gap of 11 points in the opposite direction. Polymarket odds align closely with the sportsbook view. This divergence indicates material disagreement on match likelihood; the dashboard does not adjudicate which source is correct, only that they reflect different assessments of the underlying probabilities.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.