World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group B · 24 June 2026 · home venue — Canada · Full time

Canada 1–2 Switzerland

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Canada
  • Draw
  • Switzerland
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 28%, books 40%, Polymarket 40% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Canada 1.36 − Switzerland 1.15 (Canada +0.21)

Canada 0 – Switzerland 0: 9% 9 Canada 0 – Switzerland 1: 9% 9 Canada 0 – Switzerland 2: 5% 5 Canada 0 – Switzerland 3: 2% Canada 0 – Switzerland 4: 1% Canada 0 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Canada 1 – Switzerland 0: 11% 11 Canada 1 – Switzerland 1: 13% 13 Canada 1 – Switzerland 2: 7% 7 Canada 1 – Switzerland 3: 3% Canada 1 – Switzerland 4: 1% Canada 1 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Canada 2 – Switzerland 0: 8% 8 Canada 2 – Switzerland 1: 9% 9 Canada 2 – Switzerland 2: 5% 5 Canada 2 – Switzerland 3: 2% Canada 2 – Switzerland 4: 1% Canada 2 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Canada 3 – Switzerland 0: 3% 3 Canada 3 – Switzerland 1: 4% 4 Canada 3 – Switzerland 2: 2% Canada 3 – Switzerland 3: 1% Canada 3 – Switzerland 4: 0% Canada 3 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Canada 4 – Switzerland 0: 1% Canada 4 – Switzerland 1: 1% Canada 4 – Switzerland 2: 1% Canada 4 – Switzerland 3: 0% Canada 4 – Switzerland 4: 0% Canada 4 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 0: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 1: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 2: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 3: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 4: 0% Canada 5+ – Switzerland 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Switzerland goals → Canada goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Canada to win at 41%, making them the slight statistical favorite. Switzerland's win probability stands at 28%, leaving a 13-point gap between the two sides' chances of victory.

The draw carries 31% probability, a substantial portion of the outcome distribution. The model sees this match as genuinely competitive: Canada's edge is meaningful but far from commanding, and the draw zone suggests the teams are close enough in strength that a stalemate remains a plausible result. No outcome is heavily dominant.

The model and market diverge notably here. The sportsbook consensus inverts the favorite, giving Switzerland 40% and Canada 29%—roughly an 11-point swing favoring Switzerland compared to the model. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbook view. This represents a material disagreement about which team is stronger. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources, but the divergence is large enough to warrant attention from users.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.