Canada v Switzerland

Preview

The model favors Canada at 41% to win, substantially ahead of Switzerland's 28% chance. This represents a 13-percentage-point gap in Canada's favor. Switzerland's underdog position reflects a lower modeled probability than either a Canadian victory or a draw outcome.

The expected distribution indicates a competitive match. The draw carries meaningful probability at 31%, suggesting the teams are closer in capability than the win percentages alone indicate. A one-goal margin either way remains highly plausible. The gap between Canada's and Switzerland's win probabilities narrows when a draw is factored in, implying the match could settle in multiple ways with material likelihood.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge substantially. Books collectively price Switzerland's win probability 17 percentage points higher than the model does, while rating Canada's chances 14 points lower. Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source is more accurate; this gap merits attention from users forming independent views.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.