World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group A · 24 June 2026 · home venue — Mexico · Full time

Mexico 3–0 Czechia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Mexico
  • Draw
  • Czechia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 71%, books 50%, Polymarket 51% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Mexico 2.12 − Czechia 0.65 (Mexico +1.47)

Mexico 0 – Czechia 0: 6% 6 Mexico 0 – Czechia 1: 4% 4 Mexico 0 – Czechia 2: 1% Mexico 0 – Czechia 3: 0% Mexico 0 – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 0 – Czechia 5+: 0% Mexico 1 – Czechia 0: 13% 13 Mexico 1 – Czechia 1: 9% 9 Mexico 1 – Czechia 2: 3% Mexico 1 – Czechia 3: 1% Mexico 1 – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 1 – Czechia 5+: 0% Mexico 2 – Czechia 0: 14% 14 Mexico 2 – Czechia 1: 9% 9 Mexico 2 – Czechia 2: 3% Mexico 2 – Czechia 3: 1% Mexico 2 – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 2 – Czechia 5+: 0% Mexico 3 – Czechia 0: 10% 10 Mexico 3 – Czechia 1: 6% 6 Mexico 3 – Czechia 2: 2% Mexico 3 – Czechia 3: 0% Mexico 3 – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 3 – Czechia 5+: 0% Mexico 4 – Czechia 0: 5% 5 Mexico 4 – Czechia 1: 3% 3 Mexico 4 – Czechia 2: 1% Mexico 4 – Czechia 3: 0% Mexico 4 – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 4 – Czechia 5+: 0% Mexico 5+ – Czechia 0: 3% 3 Mexico 5+ – Czechia 1: 2% Mexico 5+ – Czechia 2: 1% Mexico 5+ – Czechia 3: 0% Mexico 5+ – Czechia 4: 0% Mexico 5+ – Czechia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Czechia goals → Mexico goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Mexico decisively, assigning them a 71% win probability compared to Czech Republic's 7%. The gap reflects a substantial edge for the favorite, though the underdog retains a non-negligible chance of an upset.

The forecast distributes outcomes unevenly across the draw and either team's victory. A draw ranks second-most likely at 23%, suggesting the match has competitive potential but the model leans toward a decisive result. Mexico's dominance in the win column points to an encounter where the model expects clear separation rather than a tightly contested affair.

The model and market diverge markedly on this fixture. Sportsbooks place Mexico at 50% and Czech Republic at 25%, a gap of roughly 21 percentage points from the model's 71% and 7% respectively. Polymarket aligns more closely with the books than with the model. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the disagreement may reflect differing assessments of team quality or match context.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.