World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group C · 24 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Morocco 4–2 Haiti

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Morocco
  • Draw
  • Haiti
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 74%, books 81%, Polymarket 83% — Polymarket closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Morocco 2.24 − Haiti 0.60 (Morocco +1.64)

Morocco 0 – Haiti 0: 6% 6 Morocco 0 – Haiti 1: 3% 3 Morocco 0 – Haiti 2: 1% Morocco 0 – Haiti 3: 0% Morocco 0 – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 0 – Haiti 5+: 0% Morocco 1 – Haiti 0: 13% 13 Morocco 1 – Haiti 1: 8% 8 Morocco 1 – Haiti 2: 2% Morocco 1 – Haiti 3: 0% Morocco 1 – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 1 – Haiti 5+: 0% Morocco 2 – Haiti 0: 15% 15 Morocco 2 – Haiti 1: 9% 9 Morocco 2 – Haiti 2: 3% Morocco 2 – Haiti 3: 1% Morocco 2 – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 2 – Haiti 5+: 0% Morocco 3 – Haiti 0: 11% 11 Morocco 3 – Haiti 1: 7% 7 Morocco 3 – Haiti 2: 2% Morocco 3 – Haiti 3: 0% Morocco 3 – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 3 – Haiti 5+: 0% Morocco 4 – Haiti 0: 6% 6 Morocco 4 – Haiti 1: 4% 4 Morocco 4 – Haiti 2: 1% Morocco 4 – Haiti 3: 0% Morocco 4 – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 4 – Haiti 5+: 0% Morocco 5+ – Haiti 0: 4% 4 Morocco 5+ – Haiti 1: 3% Morocco 5+ – Haiti 2: 1% Morocco 5+ – Haiti 3: 0% Morocco 5+ – Haiti 4: 0% Morocco 5+ – Haiti 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Haiti goals → Morocco goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours Morocco at 74%, a commanding baseline against Haiti's 5% win probability. The 69-percentage-point gap reflects a clear hierarchy, though the underdog retains a small but non-zero chance of an upset.

The forecast distribution shows Morocco as heavy favourite but leaves meaningful room for a draw at 21%. That gap between win and draw probabilities suggests a moderately competitive match in structure, not a foregone conclusion. Haiti's 5% win chance is low enough to make victory improbable, yet the 21% draw probability indicates Morocco may not dominate possession or create overwhelming chances.

The sportsbook consensus sits notably higher on Morocco, at 81%, a 7-percentage-point gap above the model. The market simultaneously compresses the draw to 13%, favouring decisive outcomes over stalemate. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbooks. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the divergence is modest but consistent in direction.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.