Morocco v Haiti

Preview

The model favors Morocco at 74%, leaving Haiti with a 5% chance of victory. The gap reflects a substantial quality differential in the forecast. Morocco enters as a clear favorite, though not at the overwhelming odds sometimes seen in World Cup matches between vastly unequal sides.

The win-draw-loss spread suggests a moderately competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter. A draw carries a 21% probability, indicating genuine possibility of a stalemate. Morocco's advantage is real but not insurmountable; the outcome is not heavily concentrated in one scenario.

The model and sportsbook consensus align closely on Morocco's win probability, separated by roughly 3 percentage points. The more notable divergence appears in Haiti's chances: the market grants Haiti 10%, compared to the model's 5%—a meaningful gap suggesting bookmakers price the underdog more generously than the statistical forecast. Polymarket pricing sits between these two readings. The dashboard does not adjudicate which estimate is more accurate.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.