World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group C · 24 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Scotland 0–3 Brazil

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Scotland
  • Draw
  • Brazil
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 63%, books 69%, Polymarket 71% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Scotland 0.72 − Brazil 1.97 (Brazil +1.25)

Scotland 0 – Brazil 0: 7% 7 Scotland 0 – Brazil 1: 13% 13 Scotland 0 – Brazil 2: 13% 13 Scotland 0 – Brazil 3: 9% 9 Scotland 0 – Brazil 4: 4% 4 Scotland 0 – Brazil 5+: 2% Scotland 1 – Brazil 0: 5% 5 Scotland 1 – Brazil 1: 10% 10 Scotland 1 – Brazil 2: 9% 9 Scotland 1 – Brazil 3: 6% 6 Scotland 1 – Brazil 4: 3% 3 Scotland 1 – Brazil 5+: 2% Scotland 2 – Brazil 0: 2% Scotland 2 – Brazil 1: 3% 3 Scotland 2 – Brazil 2: 3% 3 Scotland 2 – Brazil 3: 2% Scotland 2 – Brazil 4: 1% Scotland 2 – Brazil 5+: 1% Scotland 3 – Brazil 0: 0% Scotland 3 – Brazil 1: 1% Scotland 3 – Brazil 2: 1% Scotland 3 – Brazil 3: 1% Scotland 3 – Brazil 4: 0% Scotland 3 – Brazil 5+: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 0: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 1: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 2: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 3: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 4: 0% Scotland 4 – Brazil 5+: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 0: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 1: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 2: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 3: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 4: 0% Scotland 5+ – Brazil 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Brazil goals → Scotland goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Brazil at 63%, with Scotland's win probability at 12%. Scotland faces a substantial deficit in the forecast, though the draw outcome at 25% suggests the match carries genuine competitive uncertainty rather than representing a runaway favorite.

The win-draw-loss spread reflects a clear hierarchy. Brazil's 63% win probability substantially exceeds Scotland's 12%, yet neither team's loss probability is negligible. The 25% draw probability indicates the model sees a plausible path to a stalemate; the gap between Brazil's win chance and the draw is meaningful but not extreme, pointing toward a match likely to be contested rather than one-sided.

The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket prices align closely with the model across all three outcomes. Brazil sits at 71% in both market sources versus the model's 63%—a gap of roughly 8 percentage points favoring the favorite at the market. Scotland and draw probabilities track similarly across sources. The dashboard does not claim to know which assessment is correct; the modest divergence suggests modest disagreement on Brazil's edge rather than fundamental discord about the match's structure.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.