World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group A · 24 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

South Africa 1–0 South Korea

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • South Africa
  • Draw
  • South Korea
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 13%, books 17%, Polymarket 17% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: South Africa 0.75 − South Korea 1.92 (South Korea +1.16)

South Africa 0 – South Korea 0: 7% 7 South Africa 0 – South Korea 1: 13% 13 South Africa 0 – South Korea 2: 13% 13 South Africa 0 – South Korea 3: 8% 8 South Africa 0 – South Korea 4: 4% 4 South Africa 0 – South Korea 5+: 2% South Africa 1 – South Korea 0: 5% 5 South Africa 1 – South Korea 1: 10% 10 South Africa 1 – South Korea 2: 10% 10 South Africa 1 – South Korea 3: 6% 6 South Africa 1 – South Korea 4: 3% South Africa 1 – South Korea 5+: 2% South Africa 2 – South Korea 0: 2% South Africa 2 – South Korea 1: 4% 4 South Africa 2 – South Korea 2: 4% 4 South Africa 2 – South Korea 3: 2% South Africa 2 – South Korea 4: 1% South Africa 2 – South Korea 5+: 1% South Africa 3 – South Korea 0: 0% South Africa 3 – South Korea 1: 1% South Africa 3 – South Korea 2: 1% South Africa 3 – South Korea 3: 1% South Africa 3 – South Korea 4: 0% South Africa 3 – South Korea 5+: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 0: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 1: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 2: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 3: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 4: 0% South Africa 4 – South Korea 5+: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 0: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 1: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 2: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 3: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 4: 0% South Africa 5+ – South Korea 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ South Korea goals → South Africa goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors South Korea with a 61% win probability, leaving South Africa with a 13% chance of victory. This represents a decisive tilt toward the Asian side, though the underdog retains a non-negligible path to three points.

The 26% draw probability sits between the two outright outcomes, suggesting a moderately competitive match. The gap between South Korea's win probability and South Africa's is substantial—roughly 48 percentage points—indicating the model expects the favorite to dominate possession and create better scoring opportunities, yet a stalemate remains plausible enough to rank second in the outcome distribution.

The sportsbook consensus aligns closely with the model across all three outcomes. South Korea's implied win probability sits 4 percentage points above the model's estimate, while the draw is nearly level and South Africa's implied price sits 5 percentage points higher. Polymarket pricing falls between the two in most categories, suggesting no material disagreement among the three data sources on the match structure.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.