Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire

Preview

The statistical model favors Ivory Coast with a 63% win probability, leaving Curaçao at roughly 12%. That 51-percentage-point gap reflects a substantial imbalance, though the model grants the underdog a non-trivial chance of upset.

The draw emerges as the second-likeliest outcome in the model's forecast at 25%, suggesting meaningful competitive overlap rather than a one-sided affair. The spread across all three outcomes—win, draw, loss—indicates the match carries genuine uncertainty in its intermediate scenarios, even as Ivory Coast enters as the clear favorite.

The market consensus skews more heavily toward Ivory Coast, pricing them at 77% across sportsbooks and 78% on Polymarket. The model and market diverge by roughly 13 percentage points on an Ivory Coast win, with sportsbooks and crypto traders both more pessimistic about Curaçao's chances and skeptical of draw likelihood. The dashboard presents both views without adjudication on which forecast better captures the true underlying match probability.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.