Group E · 25 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Curaçao 0–2 Côte d'Ivoire

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Curaçao
Draw
Côte d'Ivoire

Modelbias-corrected

12%

25%

64%

Sportsbookvig stripped

12%

83%

Polymarket

11%

83%

Model gave this result 64%, books 83%, Polymarket 83% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Curaçao 0.72 − Côte d'Ivoire 1.98 (Côte d'Ivoire +1.26)

0–213.2%
0–113.0%
1–19.8%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Market more confident than the model · written pre-match

The market puts Côte d'Ivoire 20 pp higher than the model — 83% vs 64%.

The market is substantially more confident in an Ivory Coast win than the model: 83% versus 64%, a 19-percentage-point gap favoring the heavy favorite. The sportsbook and Polymarket also compress the draw to 11–12% and cut Curaçao's chances to around 5%, versus the model's 25% and 12% respectively. This sharpening of conviction across all three outcomes could reflect recent form, injury news, or lineup changes that the model has not yet incorporated. The dashboard flags this as a signal worth monitoring—agreement on direction paired with divergent confidence levels often signals real-time information at work, though neither source is inherently correct until the match concludes.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Ivory Coast at 64%, but assigns Curaçao a meaningful 12% chance of victory. The underdog's probability is more than four times larger in the model's assessment than in the sportsbook consensus, which rates Curaçao at only 5%.

The model's spread reflects a moderately competitive match. A draw carries a plausible 25% probability, suggesting the teams could finish level in regular time. Ivory Coast is the clear favorite, but the model does not treat this as a heavily lopsided contest—Curaçao retains genuine upside relative to the market's view.

The sportsbook and Polymarket consensus align tightly with each other, both placing Ivory Coast near 83% and drawing at roughly 11%. Both diverge sharply from the model on Curaçao's chances, which the model rates 7 percentage points higher. The dashboard does not determine which source better reflects true match conditions; the gap merits attention from users interpreting the forecast.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.