World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group E · 25 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Ecuador 2–1 Germany

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Ecuador
  • Draw
  • Germany
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 33%, books 25%, Polymarket 25% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Ecuador 1.20 − Germany 1.30 (Germany +0.11)

Ecuador 0 – Germany 0: 9% 9 Ecuador 0 – Germany 1: 10% 10 Ecuador 0 – Germany 2: 7% 7 Ecuador 0 – Germany 3: 3% 3 Ecuador 0 – Germany 4: 1% Ecuador 0 – Germany 5+: 0% Ecuador 1 – Germany 0: 9% 9 Ecuador 1 – Germany 1: 13% 13 Ecuador 1 – Germany 2: 8% 8 Ecuador 1 – Germany 3: 4% 4 Ecuador 1 – Germany 4: 1% Ecuador 1 – Germany 5+: 0% Ecuador 2 – Germany 0: 6% 6 Ecuador 2 – Germany 1: 8% 8 Ecuador 2 – Germany 2: 5% 5 Ecuador 2 – Germany 3: 2% Ecuador 2 – Germany 4: 1% Ecuador 2 – Germany 5+: 0% Ecuador 3 – Germany 0: 2% Ecuador 3 – Germany 1: 3% 3 Ecuador 3 – Germany 2: 2% Ecuador 3 – Germany 3: 1% Ecuador 3 – Germany 4: 0% Ecuador 3 – Germany 5+: 0% Ecuador 4 – Germany 0: 1% Ecuador 4 – Germany 1: 1% Ecuador 4 – Germany 2: 1% Ecuador 4 – Germany 3: 0% Ecuador 4 – Germany 4: 0% Ecuador 4 – Germany 5+: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 0: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 1: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 2: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 3: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 4: 0% Ecuador 5+ – Germany 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Germany goals → Ecuador goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates this fixture as highly competitive, with Germany favored at 36% to win but by a narrow margin over Ecuador at 33%. The two-point gap suggests roughly even underlying strength, with Ecuador assigned a credible underdog probability rather than a distant outsider role.

The draw probability of 32% indicates the model expects a closely matched contest where a stalemate remains a plausible outcome. Win probabilities are distributed across all three results without a dominant favourite, pointing to genuine uncertainty about the match's decisive shape.

The market reads the fixture very differently. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both assign Germany roughly 64% to win—a 28-point gap above the model's estimate—while compressing Ecuador to 17% and draws to 19%. The model and market are substantially misaligned on the favourite's strength. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the divergence is large enough to merit scrutiny of underlying assumptions.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.