World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group F · 25 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Japan 1–1 Sweden

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Japan
  • Draw
  • Sweden
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 24%, books 28%, Polymarket 27% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Japan 2.06 − Sweden 0.68 (Japan +1.39)

Japan 0 – Sweden 0: 7% 7 Japan 0 – Sweden 1: 4% 4 Japan 0 – Sweden 2: 1% Japan 0 – Sweden 3: 0% Japan 0 – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 0 – Sweden 5+: 0% Japan 1 – Sweden 0: 13% 13 Japan 1 – Sweden 1: 9% 9 Japan 1 – Sweden 2: 3% 3 Japan 1 – Sweden 3: 1% Japan 1 – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 1 – Sweden 5+: 0% Japan 2 – Sweden 0: 14% 14 Japan 2 – Sweden 1: 9% 9 Japan 2 – Sweden 2: 3% 3 Japan 2 – Sweden 3: 1% Japan 2 – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 2 – Sweden 5+: 0% Japan 3 – Sweden 0: 9% 9 Japan 3 – Sweden 1: 6% 6 Japan 3 – Sweden 2: 2% Japan 3 – Sweden 3: 0% Japan 3 – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 3 – Sweden 5+: 0% Japan 4 – Sweden 0: 5% 5 Japan 4 – Sweden 1: 3% 3 Japan 4 – Sweden 2: 1% Japan 4 – Sweden 3: 0% Japan 4 – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 4 – Sweden 5+: 0% Japan 5+ – Sweden 0: 3% Japan 5+ – Sweden 1: 2% Japan 5+ – Sweden 2: 1% Japan 5+ – Sweden 3: 0% Japan 5+ – Sweden 4: 0% Japan 5+ – Sweden 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Sweden goals → Japan goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Japan at 69%, substantially ahead of Sweden's 8% win probability. This is a decisive gap: the model sees Japan as a heavy favorite at a neutral venue, while Sweden enters as a clear underdog with minimal chances of victory.

The draw emerges as a genuine possibility at 24%, suggesting the match could settle into a competitive middle ground despite Japan's preference. The 61-percentage-point gap between the favorite and underdog indicates an asymmetric contest rather than an evenly matched fixture, though the meaningful draw probability keeps the outcome from appearing foregone.

The model and market diverge notably on Japan's chances. The market consensus strips to 51% for Japan, some 17 percentage points below the model's 69%. The market rates Sweden's win probability at 22%, nearly triple the model's 8%. Both sources agree a draw is plausible (around 27%), but differ sharply on the likelihood of a Japan victory. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is more accurate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.